SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews VILLARREAL v BARCELONA and INTER MILAN v AC MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VILLARREAL V BARCELONA
5.30pm We have a blockbuster Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! It’s headlined by the Milan Derby later, but we kick off the action with a cracker from La Liga as Villarreal host Barcelona. It was a dramatic start to the new Champions League during the week for Barcelona – they were a goal and a man down very early. They did manage to get it back to 1-1, but Monaco made the extra man count to get a 2-1 win. That was a poor start for Barcelona given they have ticked all their boxes in La Liga – they’ve been very impressive at the start of the season and come into this weekend with a four point cushion over their rivals. With all their financial issues off the field, they really needed a good start on the pitch this season and they have done just that. Villarreal have had a positive start to the season too – they sat in fourth coming into this weekend; still unbeaten with three wins and two draws. Despite being unbeaten, there’s some major red flags in the Villarreal performance levels. They finished last season with an average xG conceded of 1.69 which was the worst defensive figure in La Liga.
They’ve started this season conceding a lot of chances too. Their average xG conceded is 1.68 which again, for the time being as its early days, is the worst defensive figure in La Liga! Why they have yet to be beaten is that they are massively over-performing in front of goal. Their average xG created is 1.43 but their actual goals scored average is 2.2. Barcelona’s figures are night-and-day away from Villarreal, and I was surprised to see Barcelona trading so high when I clicked into market. Barcelona are trading 1.88 with Villarreal 4.1 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Barcelona have been on fire in front of goal at the start of the season – they are banging in goals for fun and have the best attacking figure in La Liga. I know they had a blip midweek, but obviously when you lose a man so early it’s hard to deal with that at the top level. I feel 1.88 is cracking value against a side conceding so many chances, and I’m happy to have a five star NAP on Barcelona.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Barcelona to beat Villarreal at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VilBca
INTER MILAN V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move to Serie A next for undoubtedly the highlight of the weekend as Inter Milan and AC Milan clash in the latest Milan Derby. It’s a superb Sunday evening for football fans with Manchester City v Arsenal in the Premier League earlier too! This fixture always produces drama, it’s always enjoyable and this year is no different with both sides coming into this game needing a win to be honest. AC Milan have had a very slow start to the season results wise with just one win from their four games – they sit in mid-table with five points from their four games. Inter have also dropped points this season – two draws from four games is a slow start for them. They’ve benefitted from other sides dropping points too, and while the alarm bells won’t be ringing yet the fan reaction to this fixture is always over the top. If there is a loser, it will be made out to be a crisis given their other results – there’s always an overreaction! Inter Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.7 with AC Milan 5.5 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing.
Although on the face of things AC Milan have been very disappointing. Their results don’t tell the full story – they currently have the second highest attacking figure in Serie A with an average xG created of 1.68. Inter Milan’s is only 1.43 which is mid-table level at the moment. Not only have AC Milan performed well going forward, they’ve also got an average xG conceded of under 1.0 – but they are conceding more goals than that which is why they’ve struggled for results. I know in recent times Inter have an excellent record in the Derby – they have won the last six meetings which is a record run in recent times – however this time around I do feel that the 1.7 is too short. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest given the way AC Milan have been playing, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the Inter lay at 1.7. Happy to keep stakes small here however given AC Milan haven’t been getting results for their good performances.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat AC Milan at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ItnAcm
