SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v ROMA, LEGANES v REAL MADRID and ATHLETIC BILBAO v REAL SOCIEDAD all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V ROMA
5pm It’s great to have domestic football back on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, and we have a cracking Sunday from Europe! We have some top class action from Serie A and La Liga to enjoy, and we begin with a huge clash from Italy as Napoli host Roma. It’s wide open at the top of Serie A this season – coming into this weekend there’s only two points between Napoli at the top of the table and Juventus down in sixth. We can expect plenty of drama now that we have a clear run without any International football for months. Napoli haven’t been playing as well as last season, but given they were so unlucky last season, you can’t begrudge them scoring from awkward angle so far this season! They finished last season with the best attacking figure in Serie A yet finished down in mid-table; now they have a mid-table average xG created figure and they sit top of the table! Roma also sit in mid-table; they start this weekend down in 12th with back-to-back losses before going into the International break. They have been conceding a lot of goals recently; 5-1 and two 3-2 defeats in their four Serie A games before the break.
Roma have been through a manager already this season, and you’d have to wonder how they get over the post Jose Mourinho phase. The reality is they are unlikely to ever reach that type of success again, but now that they’ve tasted it, it’s hard to go back to just being a Serie A side that finished in-or-around sixth. I feel they’ll have a difficult season; I’m not really sure what to make of Claudio Ranieri coming out of retirement to take over either – the jury is definitely out and it will be interesting to see their performance levels. Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.8 with Roma 5.4 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. Although Napoli have been getting results this season, the 1.8 does feel a little short here based on their performance levels; that being said Roma have hardly been a side to rely on. With a new manager too, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. Both sides have had plenty of action in their games, and I was surprised to see Both Teams To Score marginally odds against at 2.01 – in my opinion that looks the value play.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.01 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NplRom
LEGANES V REAL MADRID
5.30pm Next we move over to La Liga with the Champions Real Madrid back in action as they travel to take on Leganes. With Leganes coming up from the Segunda last season, Real Madrid will be fully expected to win here. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.47 with Leganes 8.8 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing. Real Madrid are a little under pressure starting the weekend six points behind Barcelona – they have a game in hand though, and obviously that loss for Barcelona away to Real Sociedad just before the International break was a massive result for Real Madrid to stay in touch. Much has be made about Mbappe having a negative impact on the Real Madrid system this season, and it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. Obviously these situations can grow and grow, if Real continue to drop points and he isn’t tracking back you could easily see the fans turning on him. We’ve all seen that happen before at Real Madrid over the years! Real Madrid have only lost one La Liga game this season – an embarrassing 4-0 defeat in El Clasico – but they have dropped sloppy points away to the likes of Mallorca and Las Palmas.
Those games were towards the start of the season, and since then they have only dropped points against Atletico Madrid and Barcelona – they have been disappointing at times in the Champions League though as well. With all that being said, I do feel that the 1.47 is too big on a Real win here. Leganes are starting the weekend in 14th spot, four points away from the relegation zone but I would be surprised if they weren’t heavily involved in the relegation battle this season. There are a number of red flags in their performance levels – their average xG created is only 0.96 which is the worst attacking figure in La Liga this season. They have been more solid at the back, but they are still in the bottom seven defensive figures. In my opinion, the 1.47 is at least ten ticks too big and I’m happy with a five star NAP on Real Madrid at those odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid to beat Leganes at 1.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LegRma
ATHLETIC BILBAO V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish Sunday as Athletic Bilbao host Real Sociedad in what should be a very competitive game. There’s very little between these sides on paper, but it’s easy to understand why Athletic Bilbao are the favourites with home advantage. Athletic Bilbao are trading 2.29 with Real Sociedad 3.9 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. Coming into this weekend, there’s only two points between the sides, there’s only 0.01 between them on average xG created figures and 0.05 between them on average xG conceded. On paper, you can’t really get a closer paid than that! Obviously home advantage in very important to Athletic Bilbao, and that’s a huge factor here in my opinion so despite the sides being so evenly matched on paper, I wouldn’t be rushing to lay Bilbao at 2.29. Their performance level is much strong in front of their own fans. They are actually only marginally created more than they are conceding away from home (0.01 in the difference) but at home they are a lot more solid. They had their best ever season last season, and the performance level between their home and away performances was massive.
At home, they had an average xG created of 1.7 and this dropped to only 1.15 away from home. They conceded more chances away with an average xG conceded of 1.35, this dropped to only 1.04 when they had home advantage. Sociedad are actually very similar – they struggle to create good quality chances away from home – their average xG created away from home is only 1.07. Last season, they marginally conceding more than they created away from home. I feel we’ll have a very tight game here without too many chances – the market is expecting a quiet game with Under 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.46. I don’t see much value in that price, I’d rather back 0-0 Correct Score at 7.4 bigger than the Unders. I know Bilbao are much better at home, but I still feel we’ll see a very close game here – even with a recent win over Barcelona for Sociedad, you could easily make the case that neither side is firing yet this season. I like the draw here at 3.15 in what should be a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BilSoc
