SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ALAVES V REAL MADRID from La Liga and LAZIO V ROMA from Serie A both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ALAVES V REAL MADRID
3.15pm It’s another fascinating Sunday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have Real Madrid in action in La Liga, and a cracker from Serie A as Lazio host Roma. We kick off the action in La Liga though as Alaves host Real Madrid. It couldn’t have been a worse run for Real Madrid over the last week. A loss last weekend at home to Valencia gave Barcelona a four point lead coming into this weekend; that could have been worse too with Barcelona red-hot favourites to beat Real Betis with home advantage. Given Barcelona play Leganes on Saturday, it’s fair to assume Real will start this game seven points behind too – that’s a long way back at this stage of the season. For the time being, they just have to keep winning and see what happens. Not only was a bad week in La Liga, but they were hammered 3-0 by Arsenal in the Champions League; undone by two wonderful Declan Rice free kicks straight out of the top drawer. Although we have seen some magic from Real Madrid in the Champions League over the last few years, I just cannot see them overturning a three goal lead against Arsenal; especially because Arteta has been so cagey this season. The criticism has been he’s turned into Mourinho; and Mourinho would never lose a three goal lead!
As you would expect, Real come into the game as the odds on favourites. They might be slightly bigger than some punters would have expected though given Alaves are in the relegation battle. Real are trading 1.7 with Alaves 5.7 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Real were poor and outplayed against Arsenal, but they were unlucky against Valencia – they finished the game with an xG of 2.61 and should have won. I find it hard to get away from the 1.7 here; I know Real have been in the headlines for the wrong reasons this week, but they are miles ahead of Alaves. The home side are in the bottom five on defensive figures but they have been trying to keep games as tight as possible which is why we have so many willing layers of Real Madrid. Alaves have a very respectful average xG conceded of 1.31. Real might have to work hard to win here, and I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but the 1.7 is great value here in my opinion.
The Ultra Says: Three points win Real Madrid to beat Alaves at 1.7 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlaRma
LAZIO V ROMA
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Sunday with a cracker as Lazio host Roma. This is a huge game for both sides as they sit beside each other in the table – they come into the weekend sitting in sixth and seventh. Lazio are only three points behind Atalanta in third and two points behind Bologna in fourth so everything is to play for in the top four race. Roma are only two points behind Lazio too; it’s easy to say that this is a must win game for Roma if they are going to have any chance of getting into the mix for that fourth spot, but any dropped points at this stage of the season is a nightmare for either side. We have a very open betting heat here; Roma come into the game as the favourites at 2.68 with Lazio 3.05 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. It took Claudio Ranieri a while to get going as Roma coach – he probably wasn’t expecting the call given it was so early in the season – however, he really has Roma cooking now. They are unbeaten in 15 Serie A games – the only time they have dropped points is draws with AC Milan, Bologna, Napoli and then Juventus last weekend.
It’s easy to understand why Roma are the favourites here; included in that 15 game run was a 2-0 win over Lazio too. That being said, they were actually a little lucky to win that game – the score line definitely flatted them as Lazio created more. Lazio have also been on a great run recently; they’ve been very tough to beat just like Roma and it’s hard to see anything other than a very close game here. There isn’t much between the sides going forward; Lazio have an average xG created of 1.57 with Roma on 1.51. There’s also only 0.06 between them at the back too. It’s hard to see past the draw here at 3.25 in the match odds market – I would have the market even more open; possibly even 3.0 all three outcomes. Another option is Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 in what should be a very tense and cagey game. The stakes are high – could you say a draw isn’t the worst result for both sides? Granted they probably both need to win to have a real chance at Champions League football next season. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, but the draw is a nice option at 3.25 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says: One point win Draw at 3.25 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LziRom
