LA LIGA/SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews BARCELONA v SEVILLA and LAZIO v AC MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V SEVILLA
3.15pm It’s a top class Sunday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange with action from La Liga and Serie A to enjoy! We kick off the day in Spain as Barcelona host Sevilla at Camp Nou – this used to be a massive top four clash in La Liga, but Sevilla have been well off the pace in recent years and have dropped down to be a mid-table La Liga side. The massive gulf in class now is reflected in the market as Barcelona come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Barcelona are trading as short as 1.29 with Sevilla 12.0 and the draw is 7.0 at the time of writing. There’s no doubt that Hansi Flick’s side are in a brilliant position in the title race – they come into this weekend four points clear of Real Madrid and in red-hot form. Lamine Yamal’s winner at Athletic Bilbao last weekend kept that gap intact, and this feels like an excellent opportunity to extend it further given how limited Sevilla have been. Their average xG created of 1.31 is a mid-table figure, and that won’t trouble Barcelona with an average xG conceded of 1.08 which is the best defensive figure in La Liga. Barcelona’s average xG created of 2.23 is the best attacking figure in La Liga, and while Sevilla have a very respectable average xG conceded of 1.26 this season – they have been very sloppy at the back.
It’s hard to see Barcelona slipping up here, and it might be a question of how many goals can they score rather than will they win. Sevilla did shock Barcelona by winning 4-1 earlier in the season – that result came from nowhere and was Barcelona first loss of the season after a lightening start. Barcelona had won the previous seven meetings between the sides, so let’s not let one bad day ruin an overall record. Both Teams Not To Score – effectively a Barcelona clean sheet – is a tempting bet at 2.22 given how leaky Sevilla have been and how little they threaten. However, Barcelona do have some injury concerns at the back and then obviously this fixture falls in between the Champions League Last 16 tie too. Barcelona drew 1-1 with Newcastle so they have work to do here next week. I don’t see them resting players given the title race with Real Madrid though – I do feel this is a game for small stakes so I’m not going to go crazy, but the 2.22 on Both Teams Not To Score looks a shade of value. Barcelona can control the game here, and Sevilla are very limited going forward.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLBaSe
LAZIO V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Sunday as Lazio host AC Milan. This should be an interesting way to end the day; we have an interesting betting heat too! AC Milan come into the game as the favourites at 2.08 with Lazio 4.1 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. AC Milan are having a superb season – they sit second in the table, seven points behind Inter having beaten them 1-0 in the derby last weekend in a brilliant performance. They completed the derby double over their city rivals for the first time since 2011; although they have had a superb recent record against Inter in all competitions recently. AC Milan have been over-performing a little – their average xG created of 1.52 is the sixth best attacking figure in Serie A, and their average xG conceded of 1.27 is a solid defensive figure but they have been massively getting away with things at the back this season and that’s what has them sitting in second. AC Milan haven’t exactly been blowing side away, but they have been consistent throughout the season. Surely they will see this as an excellent chance at three points given the troubles at Lazio.
Lazio fans are growing very unhappy with the current situation, and there has been growing protests. The bigger concern for Lazio fans looking at the underlying numbers is how poor their side have been. Their average xG created of just 1.26 is very poor, and closer to relegation standard than European spots. Their average xG conceded of 1.45 is equally mid-table defensively – the have been bang average this season to be honest. AC Milan have been absolutely flying in recent weeks and the momentum is firmly with the visitors here – it’s hard to get away from the 2.08 on the away win; I’d actually have them trading odds on here given how poor Lazio have been. Lazio do have home advantage, but one wonders if the situation might turn a little toxic in the stadium if AC Milan take an early lead – I just feel Lazio have been a side to take on this season, and I’m happy with a confident bet on AC Milan to finish a cracking Sunday.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan to beat Lazio at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SALaAc
