SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GIRONA v BARCELONA, CAGLIARI v NAPOLI and ATLETICO MADRID v VALENCIA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GIRONA V BARCELONA
3.15pm We have a wonderful Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have action from La Liga and Serie A with Barcelona, Napoli and Atletico Madrid all in action – we kick things off in La Liga with Girona hosting Barcelona. It’s been an excellent start to season for Barcelona with four wins from four games, and they’ve built up a nice four point lead over Real Madrid heading into this weekend. Girona massively over-performed last season to get a spot in the top spot, and they will struggle to hold onto that this season. However, obviously Sevilla aren’t bouncing back to the top four any time soon so that fourth spot remains pretty open. Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.89 with Girona 4.2 and the draw is 4.1. Hansi Flick has Barcelona cooking at the start of the season, and that is something that is massively importantly – I said at the start of the season with their issues off the field, they need to be involved in the title battle this season. Good performances on the pitch tend to make all the issues off the pitch go away, and it’s been a case of so far so good for Barcelona in that regard.
Girona over-performed at both ends of the pitch last season. Their average xG created was 1.5 but their actual goals scored was 2.24. Their average xG conceded was 1.42 but their actual figure was 1.21. They are playing to a mid-table standard in the opening phase of the season, but they were much stronger at home compared to away from home last season. Obviously they got a lot of results, but there was a huge difference in their performance levels. Barcelona have been playing with a lot of confidence, their average xG created is 1.8 and their average conceded is under 1.0. I’s early days of course, but you cannot knock those figures – they are very impressive. I know Girona took a huge step forward last season, but when you look at the under-lining numbers they are there for the taking in my opinion. Barcelona should get the job done here, and the 1.89 is worth taking.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Barcelona to beat Girona at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GraBar
CAGLIARI V NAPOLI
5pm Next we move over to Serie A next as Cagliari host Napoli. Are we going to have the same saga with Napoli that we had last season? Napoli finished last season with the best attacking figure in Serie A and the second-best defensive figure, but they ended up a whopping 41 points behind Inter Milan at the top of the table. The question at the start of the season was would Napoli finally start to take their chances, and when they started with a 3-0 loss away to Verona the alarm bells were already ringing! Ironically, they finished that game with a higher xG created than they conceded. Since then they have put together back-to-back wins against Bologna and Parma – they also have the highest attacking figure in Serie A after everyone has played three games. Their average xG conceded is only 1.02 too, which is in the top four. Napoli have been playing to a high standard for a while now, but perhaps the results will start to come. Cagliari have had a slow start to the season, and you’d have to say that they’ll very likely be involved in the relegation battle again.
Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.87 with Cagliari 4.7 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Cagliari ended up closer to the relegation zone than they should have been last season, they under-performed in front of goal and at the back – however, they still play very average football. This game is there for the taking for Napoli in my opinion, but Cagliari will make them work hard. They have been trying to keep games as tight as possible, and obviously the worry is always there for Napoli taking their chances. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.06 and that is an appealing bet, Both Teams Not To Score is a few ticks bigger at 2.11 too. The big question here is the choice between Napoli at 1.87 and the lack of goals options. I feel this game is one for small stakes; the jury is still out on Napoli taking their chances – old habits die hard – and I like the Both Teams Not To Score option at the biggest price.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.11 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CagNap
ATLETICO MADRID V VALENCIA
8pm We move back over to La Liga to finish the weekend in Europe as Atletico Madrid host Valencia. It’s been a very positive start to the season for Atletico, but it could have been better. The draw here against Espanyol was obviously very disappointing – they finished the game with an xG of over 2.0 so it was just one of those games where they couldn’t find a goal. Valencia have had a very poor start to the season, they come here sitting bottom of the table. Atletico Madrid come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.37 with Valencia 11.5 and the draw is 5.2 at the time of writing. It’s very hard to see past a comfortable win for Atletico here especially with home advantage, but it’s hard to make the case that they should be massively shorter than 1.37. Valencia did really struggle away from home last season however; their average xG created away from home was only 1.04 and they conceded a lot of chances too. Their under-lining numbers aren’t as bad as where they are sitting in the table however, so while Atletico should get the job done I wouldn’t go into this game just expecting an easy home win.
I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here, the 1.37 doesn’t jump off the page as massive value in either direction. As you can tell by their position in the table, Valencia have struggled to score goals at the start of the season. Atletico’s average xG conceded is only 1.09 too which puts them in the top five defensive figures. The market has Over/Under 2.5 goals very even – you might even get 2.02+ on either side by the time kick off comes along as the market bounces around. Both Teams Not To Score is a lot shorter at 1.64 with the market expecting Valencia to struggle going forward again. I’m going into this game not expecting too many goals to be honest – I feel Valencia will be very negative and it will take Atletico a while to break them down. The 1.98 is tempting on Under 2.5 goals, but I also feel Valencia won’t see much of the ball here and they won’t create many chances – from that point of view, Both Teams Not To Score offers the best position here at 1.64 in what should be a cagey game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlVlc
