SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL MADRID v GETAFE, FIORENTINA v INTER MILAN and LECCE v JUVENTUS all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V GETAFE
3.15pm We have a cracking Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! La Liga and Serie A is the focus with the two Champions in action. We kick the day off with Real Madrid hosting Getafe, and Real Madrid will be hoping to bounce back from another Champions League loss midweek against Liverpool. With just six points from their five Champions League games, that leaves them down in 24th which is the last spot in the playoffs – fair to say they are under a bit of pressure there. They should still come through of course, but at the moment the system which includes Mbappe isn’t working. Liverpool absolutely controlled the game on Wednesday night, but equally Getafe are a big step down and Real will be expected to get back to winning ways here. It’s actually been a good little run in La Liga for Real because Barcelona have dropped points in back-to-back games, so the gap is only four points coming into this weekend, and Real have a game in hand too. As expected, Real Madrid are the odds on favourites currently trading 1.41 with Getafe 11.0 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing.
While a lot of football fans will expect a comfortable win for Real here, there are some interesting details in the under-lining numbers to go through. Obviously Real have been fantastic going forward – their average xG created of 1.75 is the best attacking figure in La Liga at the moment. Getafe are towards the bottom of that table with an average xG created of just 1.18 – obviously there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides going forward, but it’s not the same story at the back. Getafe have been rock solid at the back this season – they have the best defensive figure in La Liga as they are the only side with an average xG under 1.0 at 0.9. That’s a very impressive figure, and while Real aren’t far behind them with the second best defensive figure, it is a sign that Getafe could make life difficult for Real here. I’m not sure how much Getafe are going to offer going forward, but I do expect them to keep the score line respectable at the back. It’s interesting to see Under 2.5 goals odds on given the market always expects goals in Real games at home, but I still feel it offers value at 1.86. Getafe have had Under 2.5 goals in 13 of their 14 games!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaGtf
FIORENTINA V INTER MILAN
5pm We move over to Serie A next for the highlight of the day in my opinion as Fiorentina host Inter Milan. The Serie A title race has been full of drama and surprises so far – coming into this weekend there’s only one point between the top five! Two of those sides are Inter Milan and Fiorentina, both just one point behind Napoli who lead the way. Everyone has dropped points at some stage at the top of Serie A; even Juventus who come into this weekend unbeaten have still had more draws than wins! At the start of the season, I thought Inter Milan were the best bet from any of Europe’s elite leagues but they aren’t quite having an easy run. Both of these sides have the exact same record with eight wins, four draws and one loss from their 13 games, and with Fiorentina having home advantage you’d have to expect a very competitive game here. I have to say I was a little surprised by the odds here when I clicked into the market. Inter Milan come into the game as the strong favourites at 2.06 with Fiorentina 4.0 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing.
I wasn’t expecting to see Inter as short as 2.06 – I thought we’d have a much more open market. I fully respect the fact that Inter have been the better side this season, but there isn’t a huge amount in it. Inter have an average xG created of 1.61 compared to Fiorentina at 1.48. Inter have an average xG conceded of 1.01 while for Fiorentina it’s 1.2. There’s not getting away from the fact that Inter are a better side as I said, but Fiorentina are a very strong side at home, and I do feel we will see a closer game than odds of 2.06 suggest on Inter. Fiorentina create a lot more at home too – their average xG created at home this season is 1.69, and they’ve won their last four home Serie A games too. Last season they had very similar performance figures, and they were only beaten four times at home too. One of those games was a 1-0 loss to Inter Milan however, so I’m going to keep stakes small but the 2.06 looks a good value lay in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat Fiorentina at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FirInt
LECCE V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We stay in Serie A to finish Sunday from Europe as Lecce host Juventus. As I mentioned above, Juventus are the only side still unbeaten in Serie A this season, but because they’ve had more draws than wins they are actually outside the top five. They are four points behind Napoli at the start of the weekend, and three behind Atalanta, Inter Milan, Fiorentina and Lazio. Juventus have been extremely difficult to beat this season – their average xG conceded is only 0.83 which is one of the best defensive figures from the top leagues in Europe, but that has definitely come at a cost going forward. Their average xG created is only 1.16, which is in the bottom seven attacking figures from Serie A. Apart from a crazy 4-4 draw away to Inter Milan, there hasn’t been too much drama in Juventus games. Lecce actually have a marginally better attacking figure – their average xG created is 1.28 but they have really struggled in front of goal. They have only converted close to one third of those chances, and that’s put them close enough to the relegation battle. They have the talent to not be involved, but they need to start converting their chances.
Another issue for Lecce is they haven’t been good at the back. They have the second worst defensive figure in Serie A at the moment, and they’ve been just sloppy at the back in general. You might worry about Juventus getting the job done with their attacking figures away from home, but on paper Lecce are an ideal side for them to face – they are giving up chances and Juventus will benefit from that. Juventus come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.76 with Lecce 6.0 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. As I said, usually backing Juventus at odds on away from home wouldn’t really appeal, but Lecce are the ideal side for them to face at the moment. Obviously I still do have some doubts with Juventus in general, so I’m happy to keep stakes small but this one but the 1.76 on Juventus is worth taking. They have been very impressive at the back, and Lecce will give them chances here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Juventus to beat Lecce at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LecJuv
