LA LIGA AND SERIE A: The Ultra previews BARCELONA v GIRONA and NAPOLI v AC MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V GIRONA
3.15pm We have a cracking Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Domestic football is back in full flow after the International Break, and we have some top class action from La Liga and Serie A to enjoy. Undoubtedly the highlight of the day is Napoli hosting AC Milan later, but we kick the day off in La Liga as Barcelona host Girona. Last season this was a Top Four clash with Girona having their best season ever; but they massively over-performed and they have dropped off markedly this season. The market is very confident on the home win here, and Barcelona come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Barcelona are trading 1.29 with Girona 11.0 and the draw is 7.2 at the time of writing. Barcelona came back earlier than usual after an International Break; they played Osasuna here on Thursday and won to give themselves a three point lead, which was effectively their game in hand. We had plenty of swings in the La Liga title race, but for the time being it looks like Barcelona are on top – they started superbly, went through a terrible November and December, now with Real Madrid dropping points they have got back to the top. I’m sure there’s more drama to come!
As things stand, you’d have to say Barcelona fully deserve to be top – they have the best attacking figure with an average xG created of 1.90 and they also have the best defensive figure too – their average xG conceded is just 0.99 – the only La Liga club with an average xG conceded under 1.0 this season. They put Osasuna to the sword with a comfortable 3-0 win on Thursday, landing our bet on Both Teams Not To Score, and I would expect a reasonably similar result here. Girona were hammered 4-1 by Barcelona earlier in the season, and an average xG of 1.29 for Girona isn’t a figure that Barcelona will be worried about. Girona are actually marginally conceding more than they are creating this season. Both Teams Not To Score, effectively a Barcelona clean sheet in my opinion, is trading 2.24 and Barcelona to cover a 1.5 goal handicap is 1.73 which looks cracking value in my opinion given how limited Girona have been this season. I’m happy with a confident bet to start the day! I wouldn’t put anyone off -2.5 goals at 2.72 or bigger either.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona -1.5 goals to beat Girona at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarGno
NAPOLI V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Sunday with a cracker as Napoli host AC Milan. This is the highlight fixture of the weekend from Europe in my opinion – it’s a massive game for both sides as they return after the International Break. Both sides desperately need a win; the wheels have fallen off Napoli’s title challenge this season, and they return three points behind Inter Milan. AC Milan are starting the weekend sitting down in ninth, and they are in massive danger of missing out on the European spots next season – they still have the Cup but they just haven’t got over the line in enough Serie A games this season. So, a game of high stakes – a draw is no good to either side too, so it’ll be interesting to see what tactics both sides adopt. Napoli come into the game as the favourites at 2.04 with AC Milan 4.2 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. While Napoli haven’t lost many games recently, they have struggled to get wins – only one from their last seven Serie A games has saw Inter Milan take over in the title race. Of course, every fan of xG figures was waiting for this given Napoli have a mid-table attacking figure this season.
Napoli have been exceptionally solid at the back however; they have an average xG conceded of just 1.1 which is the joint-second best defensive figure in Serie A this season. They’ve been conceding less than a goal a game too. AC Milan have played a lot better than their position of ninth in the table, they have the third best attacking figure this season, but as I said above they just haven’t got over the line in enough games. It’s been hard to put your finger on the reason – they haven’t been sloppy at the back either. Obviously that is a worry with AC Milan this season, and for that reason I’m going to keep stakes small here, however the 2.04 looks far too short on Napoli in my opinion. I expect a closer game than those odds suggest, and from a value point of view I’m very happy with a Napoli lay. They haven’t been playing better than AC Milan this season; granted they have got more results, which is why stakes are low.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Napoli to beat AC Milan at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NpiAcm
