SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews OSASUNA v ATLETICO MADRID, BAYER LEVERKUSEN v DORTMUND, NAPOLI v ROMA and REAL MADRID v REAL SOCIEDAD all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
OSASUNA V ATLETICO MADRID
3.15pm What a fantastic Sunday we have around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have some top class games all around Europe today from La Liga, the Bundesliga and Serie A. We kick off the day in La Liga with Osasuna hosting Atletico Madrid. I have to say it’s been strange season for Atletico Madrid so far, but they broke back into the top four with a very smooth 3-0 win over Real Valladolid. They had a terrible time of things in the Champions League, and finished bottom of their Group not even making it to the Europa League! That was a big surprise, especially because Bayer Leverkusen didn’t finish in the top two either it was Porto and Club Brugge getting through. It’s clear that Atletico are well off the pace this season, and they aren’t even close to the title race, but they must finish in the top four. Anything else would be a complete disaster, especially with Sevilla out of the picture too this season. Osasuna are having a great season as they start the weekend sitting in seventh – usually they come in around 10th or 11th, but they should be a decent challenge fo Atletico here.
Atletico come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t odds on, they are trading 2.22 at the time of writing. Although Atletico have only won two of their four La Liga games since returning after the World Cup, they have been unlucky not to win the four games. They have been playing much better football – they should have beaten Barcelona because they finished with an xG of 2.06, very close to double what they conceded and then they were the better side in the 1-1 draw with Almeria, finishing that game with an xG of 2.24. Those performances have been night-and-day away from how Osasuna have played since resuming their season. They haven’t had a difficult fixture list and even got held to a 1-1 draw with Elche last weekend who have been nailed to the bottom of the table. Osasuna’s xG figures since resuming their season have been 0.47, 0.37, 1.35 and 0.71 – Atletico arrive into this game in good form, and the 2.22 is a nice bet to start a cracking day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Atletico Madrid to beat Osasuna at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaAtl
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V DORTMUND
4.30pm Next we go to the Bundesliga as Bayer Leverkusen host Dortmund. This should be a cracker, with both sides resuming their season with two wins after the winter break. Bayer Leverkusen had a really slow start to the season, but they have shot up the table recently – obviously we had the break for the World Cup, and then the Bundesliga took their winter break too, but Leverkusen have put five wins together in a row in the Bundesliga. They’ve been scoring loads of goals too, and this should be a very entertaining game against Dortmund who won’t sit back. It was nice to land a bet on Dortmund midweek, and it’s been a hectic return to action for the Bundesliga with three full fixture lists within eight days! Dortmund will be pleased with their two performances since the World Cup, and they need to put a few wins together as they had fallen out of the top four. I know it was always going to be very hard to replace the goals of Erling Haaland, but I didn’t expect them to fall out of the top four! They are still creating a lot in front of goal though, their average xG created is 1.9 which is clearly very impressive. I can’t see either side sitting back here, and we should see plenty of chances in an end-to-end game.
We have a very open betting heat here, but Bayer Leverkusen come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.52 at the time of writing with Dortmund 2.82. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market because this game screams goals to me, and Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.59 which is a very appealing bet. We all know that Dortmund love to play an open game, and Bayer Leverkusen enjoy playing an open game too. They are actually creating the same xG figure as they are conceding this season with an average of 1.5. I felt we would be looking at a price of sub 1.5 on Over 2.5 goals here I feel we’re getting ten ticks of value which is worth a Max Bet in my opinion. I’d be surprise if we didn’t have a very entertaining game here!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LevDor
NAPOLI V ROMA
7.45pm We move over to Serie A next for the highlight fixture of the day as Napoli host Roma. It was Jose Mourinho’s 60th birthday earlier this week, and it was brilliant seeing all his best moments on Twitter. He’s had some hilarious moments over the years – even the videos you’ve already watched you want to watch again. He’s achieved so much, but what a character. I have to say my two favourite Jose Mourinho moments were the celebration when Inter got through against Barcelona, and then the holding his hand up to his ear after Manchester United beat Juventus – two brilliant Champions League moments – but to be honest you could write a book on all the brilliant moments he has had! He has done a great job with Roma, and after landing their first major European trophy last season they are bang in the mix in the top four race this season. Juventus getting docked 15 points has massively helped their cause, and they will be hoping to swap places with Lazio at some stage. Napoli are running away with the title at the moment – they have a 12 point advantage heading into this weekend, and after losing against Inter they have bounced back superbly with a 5-1 hammering of Juventus and then following that up with another win last weekend.
Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites which isn’t a surprise given how strong they have been this season. They’ve only lost one Serie A game all season, and that was away to Inter Milan, which was a pretty even game too. Whenever you look, the stats say Napoli are having an excellent season. They sit top of the form and away form table, along with having very impressive under-lining numbers. They are creating over two goals per game and conceding less than one – the stats of Champions. While Roma aren’t quite at Napoli’s level, they have been playing great football this season. They have actually been better at the back this season than Napoli on the bare stats – their average xG conceded is only 0.7, and they are also creating an average xG of 1.8. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Napoli win, the 1.78 does feel too short on them. I expect a closer game than those odds suggest and the 1.78 is a tempting lay – indeed, I couldn’t put anyone off it. However, Under 2.5 goals looks nice value here at 1.92. Roma are very likely to sit back here, while Napoli really haven’t given away many chances this season. Mourinho will want this game to be as cagey as possible, and I don’t see there being lots of chances in this one.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NpoRom
REAL MADRID V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish a cracking Sunday as Real Madrid host Real Sociedad. This should be another intriguing game, and Real Sociedad come into the fixture in great form too. They have won all four of their games since resuming their season after the World Cup, and they have kept three clean sheets too. Obviously the Bernabeu is a very difficult place to visit and get a result, but you have to say Sociedad come here in a good place. Real Madrid have to go play the FIFA Club World Cup soon, and they can’t afford to let Barcelona get any further ahead. From a title race point of view, this is pretty much a must win game for Real Madrid. They lost ground in the title race with a 2-1 loss away to Villarreal, but they grinded out a good win last weekend away to Athletic Bilbao. The market has Real Madrid trading 1.75, and I’m sure they’ll be a very popular bet at those odds. It’s not often you see Real Madrid trading so high with home advantage, but make no mistake this will be a tricky fixture. The 1.75 doesn’t exactly jump off the page looking at how well Sociedad have been playing this season.
Real Sociedad are only three points behind Real Madrid, and they have a huge chance of finishing in the top four this season with Sevilla struggling so much. In fairness to Sociedad, they have started the last two seasons on fire before falling away – it will be interesting to see can they hold their form this season! Real Madrid have a good record against Real Sociedad – they are unbeaten in the last six La Liga meeting. However, two of the last four meetings have ended with a draw, so don’t go rushing into the 1.75. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here because I like Under 2.5 goals at 2.01. Three of the last four La Liga meetings between the sides have had Under 2.5 goals, but also the fact that Real Madrid haven’t really fired since the World Cup. I’d expect Sociedad to sit back, they’ll view a draw as a great result, and we could easily see a very cagey game here. The market has Overs as the marginal favourite, but I’d have the odds the other way around.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.01 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaRea
