SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews RAYO VALLECANO v REAL MADRID, BOCHUM v BAYERN MUNICH and MONZA v AC MILAN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RAYO VALLECANO V REAL MADRID
1pm We have an intriguing Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Three big away favourites from La Liga, the Bundesliga and Serie A. Will we see any drama? We kick off the day in La Liga with Rayo Vallecano hosting Real Madrid. It’s been an excellent run for Real Madrid recently, and they’ve created a five point gap at the top of La Liga now over Girona. They also have a ten point gap over Barcelona; fair to say that they are running away with the title at the moment. They also recorded a nice 1-0 win away to RB Leipzig midweek in the Champions League away from home which obviously gives them a huge boost in their Quarter-Final chances. Despite the gap growing at the top of La Liga, Real have been involved in plenty of drama! They were 2-0 down to Almeria before winning 3-2 in the 99th minute, then they were 1-0 down against Las Palmas before scoring the winner in the 84th minute. They wouldn’t have been unhappy with the 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid either, and even though Real come into this game as the odds on favourites they have been trading higher in-running of late; apart from the smooth 4-0 against Girona last weekend!
Real Madrid will be a popular bet here. They are trading 1.65 at the time of writing with Rayo Vallecano 6.0 and the draw is 4.2. I was surprised to see Real trading as high as 1.65 when I clicked into the market, Rayo Vallecano seem there for the taking at the moment. They have only managed one win in their last 14 La Liga games which is quite the run. They’ve lost four of their last five, but I suppose it’s worth noting that they managed to pick up a draw here against Barcelona, and they also held Real Madrid to a 0-0 draw either in the season. When you look at the xG figures of that game though Rayo Vallecano were exceptionally lucky – they had an xG of 0.26 and Real’s was 2.16! Rayo Vallecano, despite their current run, do create more chances than they concede at home which is a positive. However, they are up against the best side in the league here and morale seems low given this run for the home side. I’d have Real closer to 1.5 here, and at 1.65 they are worth a Max Bet to start Sunday.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid to beat Rayo Vallecano at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RayRea
BOCHUM V BAYERN MUNICH
4.30pm We move to the Bundesliga next as Bochum host Bayern Munich. Yet more pressure was piled on Thomas Tuchel and Bayern Munich midweek after a 1-0 loss away to Lazio in the Champions League. Crashing out at the Last 16 stage would be a massive shock considering Lazio have been quite average in Serie A this season; obviously they have the second leg at home and they’ll be fancied to turn things around but it’s less than ideal. That game quickly came after they lost to Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga last weekend too meaning the gap is now five points. For the first time in quite a while it looks like Bayern could actually not win the Bundesliga title; I know we went to the final day last season with it in Dortmund’s hands but the title race went right down to the wire. This season it looks like Leverkusen could run away with the title. In terms of under-lining numbers, it’s hard to fault Bayern Munich this season. Their average xG created is 2.26 with an average conceded of 1.06 – both of those are the best attacking and defensive figures in the Bundesliga but they have dropped sloppy points against the likes of Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt. Leverkusen haven’t been as sloppy at the back, and that’s been the difference.
Despite all the recent drama, Bayern will still be fully expected to win here. Anything bar a comfortable win would be a massive shock; Bochum aren’t too far away from the relegation zone. They started the weekend with a six point advantage over Koln in the relegation playoff spot so they obviously have a decent cushion, but they’ve still been very average. Bayern Munich are trading 1.36 with Bochum 9.4 and the draw is 6.2 at the time of writing. Bochum haven’t been too bad going forward, but they do have one of the highest average xG conceded figures this season and that usually spells trouble against Bayern! They’re average created of 1.44 is decent though, and with home advantage here and Bayern conceding sloppy goals they can find the net at some stage. Both Teams To Score is worth backing for limited stakes at 1.76.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BchBay
MONZA V AC MILAN
7.45pm We end Sunday in Serie A as Monza host AC Milan. Given the recent results for Juventus, there’s a chance that AC Milan could finish second this season. That’s going to be their best possible result though because they aren’t catching Inter Milan at the top of the table. At least AC Milan can somewhat relax sitting safely in the top four given the gap to the rest. They start the weekend only one point behind Juventus but they have a ten point advantage to Atalanta who are in fourth so they don’t have to worry about missing out on a Champions League spot. Unfortunately however, AC Milan are already in the Europa League after getting knocked out of the Champions League! This should be an interesting game, Monza are a mis-table Serie A side but they seem there for the taking in my opinion. Inter Milan won 5-1 here in January, and while we might not see a score line like that, looking at the under-lining numbers Monza are a pretty average side. Their average xG created is only 1.13 and they concede 1.49. Those figures don’t really change at home either; they concede less chances but they don’t create more.
AC Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.84 with Monza 4.8 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. I have to say I was surprised to see AC Milan trading as high as 1.84 when I clicked into the market. I suppose this game does fall in the middle of their Europa League tie and given they look pretty secure in the top four we could see some change. However, I still feel that the 1.84 is too big. AC Milan have got much better as the season has gone on; they grinded out a lot of wins without playing great football towards the start of the season but now they are looking good. Their average xG created is marginally better than Juventus, but it’s still only the fifth best attacking figure in fairness. AC Milan have actually created marginally more chances away from home – there’s barely anything in it but it shows that they have been in good form away. Because this fixture does fall in between their Europa League tie, I won’t go crazy with the staking but the 1.84 is worth a confident bet. As I said, Monza are there for the taking.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan to beat Monza at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MonMil
