LA LIGA: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews La Liga on Sunday. Recommended BETDAQ bets for ALAVES v REAL BETIS, REAL VALLADOLID v REAL SOCIEDAD, VILLARREAL v HUESCA and VALENCIA v LEVANTE.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
ALAVES V REAL BETIS
1pm We kick off a busy day in La Liga at 1pm with Alaves taking on Real Betis. This fixture was pencilled in for Monday Night Football however it was moved to start the action today. These two finished in the bottom six of La Liga last season, and you’d have to assume they will be fighting to stay up again. They finished beside each other with Real Betis on 41 points and Alaves on 39. We should have a pretty close affair today.
It’s fair to say that neither side played good football after lockdown last season, and they both finished the season poorly. It will be interesting to see how managers change the momentum this season with such a short summer break. I can see a very close and cagey affair, as neither side had lots of goals in their games towards the end of the season. Under 2.5 goals looks the value at 1.71.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQAlaBet
REAL VALLADOLID V REAL SOCIEDAD
3pm This is the fixture where I have my NAP of the day. I’m very surprised that you can get 2.76 on Sociedad to win here, what a price! If you follow the Premier League, you’ll know how poor Newcastle were on xG last season but it wasn’t reflected in their results. We more or less have the same situation with Valladolid here. xG put them in 19th position last season, with Sociedad having an rock solid 6th place finish.
The xG numbers clearly point to a comfortable Sociedad win here and they look incredible value at 2.76. Four points is my stake choice, but only because it’s the opening day of the season, with a bit of match fitness it would be a max bet. Clearly a minor worry is a slow tempo game because of lack of a normal pre-season, as is the worry with every game this weekend though. Sociedad were miles better than Valladolid last season and they will outclass them today.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Real Sociedad to beat Real Valladolid at 2.76 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQValSoc
VILLARREAL V HUESCA
5.30pm Arsenal fans might be keeping an eye on this one as Unai Emery takes over at Villarreal. It’s difficult to know whether he did a decent job at Arsenal given their fanbase are one of the most unrealistic out there, but this job should suit him. Villarreal finished 5th last season and they have had some good signings. They also have Takefusa Kubo on loan from Real Madrid and they should be able to keep their position towards the top of the table.
Huesca come up to La Liga after winning the Segunda last season, but they did have a lot of losses and on paper it looks like they could really struggle in La Liga. They like to play a very open game of football, but against some of La Liga’s top stars that can only end in tears. Even in Segunda last season they lost 14 games. That’s a huge amount of games for a Champion of any league to lose. Villarreal should out-score them here and they are worth backing at 1.61.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Villarreal to beat Huesca at 1.61 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQVilHue
VALENCIA V LEVANTE
8pm The Valencia Derby, not a bad way to spend a Sunday evening! Valenica have really shaken things up in the short summer break, and only time will tell if it was the right thing to do. They have changed manager and sold off some of their players. Upper management was clearly not happy with the direction that the team was heading but with that amount of change, we could see a difficult start to the new season for them.
Valencia were clearly disappointed to finish down in 9th, and xG puts them even further down the table so their underlining process wasn’t good either. Levante still finished four points behind them, however with all the summer change they will see this as a very good chance to win the Derby. I think Valencia are a little short here at 2.16 given all the changes, however I like under 2.5 goals at 2.04. I expect a pretty cagey game here and unders looks worth a small investment.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQValLev
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