SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL MADRID v ALMERIA, REAL BETIS v BARCELONA and GIRONA v SEVILLA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V ALMERIA
3.15pm The focus this Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE is La Liga! Real Madrid, Barcelona and Girona are all in action and we should have a very entertaining day ahead. We start the day with the shortest price of the weekend as Real Madrid host Almeria. Anything bar a comfortable home win here would be a massive shock with Real trading as short as 1.16 at the time of writing. If you do fancy the shock, Almeria are trading 19.0 with the draw 10.5. We had a little break in La Liga fixtures with the Spanish Super Cup which was hosted in Saudi Arabia – Real Madrid beat Barcelona 4-1 in the Final. Real find themselves one point behind Girona at the top of the La Liga table, but they do have a game in hand which will put them top should they win. Girona have dropped a few points recently, and they actually drew with Almeria away from home last weekend – that was a massive blow with Almeria sitting bottom of the table. They have only managed six points from their 20 games and they are the nailed to the bottom of the table. Their chances of staying up look exceptionally slim – they are scoring less than a goal a game and conceding over two.
You don’t win many games with those stats, and sure enough Almeria are still waiting for their first win! They will have to wait a little longer too, as I can’t see anything bar a comfortable home win here. It’s a case of how many goals can Real score rather than will they win in my opinion, and obviously with that mindset the focus here will be the handicap and goal markets. Almeria have created more chances than they have taken this season to their credit, but they have been poor at the back. Their average xG conceded is the second worst defensive figure in the league. Real have an average xG created of 1.96 this season and everything points to a big win here. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals as short as 1.32 – I feel Real can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning here though. Both Teams Not To Score looks a nice position at 1.96 – Real can fully control this one against a side clearly struggling.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaAlm
REAL BETIS V BARCELONA
5.30pm We have two very interesting markets to finish the day, and we start with Real Betis hosting Barcelona. Real Betis have been quite average this season, and they must be disappointed with how the last two seasons have developed. With Sevilla dropping out of the top four, they looked the best placed side to take advantage but they just haven’t been good enough. They started this weekend sitting in seventh, they are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating and they’ve basically just been playing mid-table football really. Barcelona have the highest average xG created figure in La Liga at 2.02, but they are eight points behind Girona at the top of the table. More importantly, they are seven behind Real Madrid having played the same amount of games and their title chances look very slim at the moment. Jude Bellingham has completely changed the dynamic from last season, he even turned El Clasico on its head too. Still, Barcelona have to keep winning games and see what happens – that’s all they can do for the time being. They will be expected to win this one, and they do come into the game as the odds on favourites.
Barcelona are trading 1.87 with Real Betis 4.5 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Most of Real Betis’ problems have come away from home this season – their overall stats are very average but when you break them down home and away it paints a completely difference picture. At home, their average xG created is 1.64 and their average conceded is 1.10. Compare this to away – their average xG created is only 1.16 and their average conceded is a whopping 1.72. They actually haven’t lost a home game here this season, they have hosted Real Madrid already too. Barcelona did hammer them 5-0 earlier in the season, but as I highlighted Betis have been so poor away from home. Barcelona have been playing excellent football this season, but they have dropped most of their points away from home. They’ve dropped points in seven games, and five of those have been away with draws. I feel the draw is worth a small bet here at nice odds of 4.0. Betis have been solid enough at home to suggest they can grind out a draw.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 4.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetBrc
GIRONA V SEVILLA
8pm We end the weekend with an intriguing fixture as league leaders Girona host Sevilla. After dropping points away to Almeria last weekend, Girona only have a one point advantage over Real Madrid heading into today. With Real Madrid playing earlier in the day you’d expect Girona to be kicking off here sitting in second – and that’s not even worrying about the game in hand Real Madrid have too. Dropping points against Almeria was absolutely criminal with Almeria siting nailed to the bottom of the table. The show goes on however, and Girona will have to bounce back to winning ways here. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.78 with Sevilla 4.9 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Sevilla are having another horror show this season – they already been knocked out of Europe so European success won’t save them this season. They start this weekend sitting down in 17th just one point off the relegation zone. Any chance they had of bouncing back into the top four is long gone, their chance of even getting European football next season are gone too. They haven’t played bad football, they just can’t get a result this season.
One of the best and most strange stats from Europe this weekend comes in this fixture in my opinion. Girona are top of the table with Sevilla in the relegation battle one point off danger, but Sevilla actually have a higher average xG figure. Sevilla have an average xG created of 1.71 which is the third highest attacking figure in La Liga this season! The problem? They haven’t come even close to taking those chances unfortunately – at what point do we lose faith in Sevilla? They keep playing good football but they just can’t score the goals. Girona are creating less and conceding more than Sevilla, but they are getting the results and deserve massive credit for that. Their average xG conceded is creeping up at 1.49 though, eventually sides will start taking their chances against them. Obviously Girona are massively over-performing in front of goal too. I do worry about Sevilla, but they are playing good football – they just need to score a few goals and find their confidence. I’m going to keep stakes low, but I do feel Girona are worth laying at 1.78. I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest given how many chances Sevilla are creating. They have to start scoring eventually!
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Girona to beat Sevilla at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirSvl
