SUNDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between VALENCIA v ATLETICO MADRID, OSASUNA v REAL SOCIEDAD and AC MILAN v INTER MILAN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VALENCIA V ATLETICO MADRID
3.15pm We have another excellent day in Europe on Sunday and I have picked three games of interesting on BETDAQ Betting Exchange to take a look at. We start in La Liga with Valencia hosting Atletico Madrid. With Atletico trading around 2.0 away from home, we’re going to have some big opinions on their price here – we will have big backers and big layers! I have to say they have been disappointing in the main this season, and I am sitting in the laying camp today. Valencia had a huge clear out before the 2020/21 season and although they were on the edge of a relegation fight at times, they finished the season well to finish in 13th. They started this weekend in 10th, and it’s fair to say all their changes have paid for at the moment anyway. They were on the way down, went for a full shock, and now they are making their way back – they might even challenge for European football next season if they can continue in the right direction.
Although Valencia have only won once their last eight, with that win coming last weekend here against Villarreal, they are actually playing good football. They’ve had to play Real Madrid, Sevilla and Barcelona on that run, and they have been unlucky at times. For example they created an xG of 1.86 against Cadiz but had to settle for a 0-0 draw when only conceding an xG of 0.14. They also had to settle for a 2-2 draw against Mallorca when they played well but ended up 2-0 down – they actually scored two goals in injury time to save the draw! When you look at the Atletico xG figures, you can clearly see they are struggling to create the same volume of chances as they usually do. I have been caught out by them already this season thinking they can improve and beat average sides, but they have been disappointing. A small Atletico lay is the value bet here.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Valencia at 2.0 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQValAtl
OSASUNA V REAL SOCIEDAD
5.30pm Next we stay in La Liga as table toppers Real Sociedad travel to take on Osasuna. Sociedad would have been delighted to sit top of the table at the start of the weekend, but it’s clear that the pack are catching up with them and we all know how quickly Sociedad fell down the table after a fast start last season. They’ve only lost one league game so far, and that was the first game of the season away to Barcelona. I think given the way things have gone at Barcelona if you played that fixture now, Real Sociedad would probably win! They have been rock solid though, and they have picked up draws against Atletico Madrid and Sevilla already. This will be a good test for them however, as Osasuna are having a good season. They started the weekend sitting in 7th but you can see them starting to fall back down to mid-table. Osasuna are your classic mid-table La Liga side to be honest, and they will likely finish in that bracket between 9th and 12th again.
Real Sociedad look a great bet here at 2.44. I know they have only won one of their last four games in all competitions, but Osasuna aren’t creating much at the moment. Osasuna have created xG’s of 0.76, 0.83, 1.45, 1.01 and 0.70 in their last five games. I know they have had to play Sevilla and Real Madrid in their last two fixtures, but you can see they aren’t flying at the moment. Even though Real Sociedad had to settle for a draw midweek in the Europa League, they finished the game with a whopping xG of 4.45! They wouldn’t have been unhappy with a 2-2 draw at Atletico Madrid either. I can understand why we have an open market here, but Sociedad are worth backing at the odds. I would have them 2.3 here rather than the 2.44.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Sociedad to beat Osasuna at 2.44 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQOsaSoc
AC MILAN V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We move to Serie A to finish an intriguing day for the Milan Derby! The Giuseppe Meazza will be rocking on Sunday night, and we should have an absolute cracker. Looking at the table, this game is actually very important for both sides. I know winning the derby is always very important, but you have to say that Inter need to win here. At the start of the weekend they sit seven points behind Napoli and AC Milan at the top of the table. I know they found themselves behind at the start of last season and finished the season very strongly to win the title by 12 points but you get the feeling that won’t happen this season. They aren’t as strong, especially after selling Lukaku, but they might have more trouble catching Napoli rather than AC Milan. A ten point gap however would be pretty massive, even at this stage of the season, so you can see what an important game this is. If Inter win, they can easily close a four point gap.
AC Milan won a huge game last weekend against Jose Mourinho’s Roma – they had to grind out a 2-1 win away from home in a very even game. I’m sure they took great confidence from that win as Roma have been pretty good this season. Inter come into this game unbeaten in five games in all competitions since losing 3-1 to Lazio. They had to play Juventus on that run too, although they would have been disappointed to only draw 1-1 given how poor Juventus have been this season. Since that draw they have created a lot though – xG’s of 2.77, 2.21 and 2.72. AC Milan’s performances and figures haven’t been as good – for example they drew with Porto midweek in the Champions League but they gave away a much higher xG. Looking at the AC Milan figures, they just concede too many chances and I can see Inter taking full advantage of that. The 2.28 is worth taking here, in what should be a cracking game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Inter Milan to beat AC Milan at 2.28 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAcmInt
