LA LIGA/SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between RAYO VALLECANO v REAL BETIS, SEVILLA v GETAFE, AC MILAN v ROMA and ATLETICO MADRID v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RAYO VALLECANO V REAL BETIS
3.15pm We have a wonderful Sunday around Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange this weekend! We have some top class games from La Liga and Serie A, no doubt all eyes will be on Atletico Madrid v Barcelona and AC Milan v Roma later on, but we have two interesting games before we get there too. We kick off the day in La Liga with Rayo Vallecano hosting Real Betis. With Sevilla struggling badly this season, and even sitting in the relegation zone, Real Betis will be disappointed to only be sitting in sixth heading into this weekend. They start the weekend sitting only two points behind Atletico Madrid in fourth place so they are well in the mix for that last Champions League spot, but after finishing a strong fifth last season and winning the Copa del Rey you felt they could have stepped forward this season. The reality is that they have really been good enough. Their under-lining numbers aren’t overly impressive as they are basically creating what they are conceding. They dropped points heading into the World Cup, and they re-started their season with a very close 0-0 draw with Athletic Bilbao. There really wasn’t much between the sides there, and Betis will have to create more here.
It might surprise most casual football fans to see the odds here when they click into the market. Rayo Vallecano are the clear favourites at 2.44 while Real Betis are trading 3.3. Both sides have very similar under-lining numbers this season, and Rayo Vallecano have only been beaten once at home all season. A game where they actually finished with a marginally higher xG figure than they conceded too. While I wouldn’t say that Real Betis have struggled away from home this season, they haven’t got many results. They lost to Celta Vigo and had to settle for two 0-0 draws with Real Valladolid and Cadiz for example. They were hammered 3-0 by Valencia before the World Cup, but I still feel that the odds are a little too in favour of Rayo Vallecano here. I expect a very close game – both sides have very similar stats and I’m happy to back the draw at 3.3. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 0-0 involving Real Betis.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValBts
SEVILLA V GETAFE
5.30pm We stay in La Liga next as Sevilla host Getafe. It’s still almost hard to believe when you look at the La Liga table and see Sevilla sitting in the relegation zone after 15 games. For years the top four in La Liga has been “on lock” basically, but this season has been a total disaster for Sevilla. The most worrying thing from their point of view is that it could be actually worse too, not better. They are conceding an average xG of 2.0 per game, but their actual figure is only 1.5. They could have even less points! It’s pretty remarkable considering this time last season they looked like the only challenger to Real Madrid for the title, and now their performance level is so poor they actually deserve to be sitting in the bottom three. They are your classic example of “too good to go down” but if they don’t start picking up points soon they are really going to have to tough it out. Whatever happens, it’s already a disaster for the club because they are certain to miss out on European football next season which is obviously a big blow to income, and bringing star players to the club. It’s crazy how quickly things can change. They face a Getafe side here who are usually in the mix to go down themselves, but they sit five points ahead of Sevilla heading into this game.
Sevilla are going to start this game as the odds on favourites, but it would take a very brave punter to back them at 1.81 considering they’ve only won two games all season. Getafe returned to action with a 2-0 win with home advantage against Mallorca too, and while they clearly struggle to create chances up front, they are a better side than Sevilla at the back. It seems likely that Getafe will sit back here and just aim to counter-attack. That could work well too given how poor Sevilla have been this season; I’m definitely happy to keep stakes small here given this will be a low qualify affair, but the Sevilla lay is hard to ignore at the odds. I fully expect Getafe to make the game closer than the odds suggest, and Sevilla just haven’t played well enough this season to justify 1.81 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Sevilla to beat Getafe at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevGet
AC MILAN V ROMA
7.45pm We go over to Serie A in the evening for a cracker between AC Milan and Roma! We have had some huge games in Serie A since returning to action after the World Cup, and this is another one. Despite Inter Milan getting back into the mix with a win over Napoli, AC Milan would have been happy to see their derby rivals win that game as they were able to close the big gap on Napoli at the back of the table. That means AC Milan start the weekend only five points behind Napoli, which is a lot more than the eight they sat ahead during the World Cup! You have to say the title is still in Napoli’s hands, but one more loss and they will really start to feel the heat – it’s important AC Milan win this game and keep the pressure on. Jose Mourinho’s Roma will have other plans however! They returned to action with a hard fought 1-0 win over Bologna – they took the lead after six minutes and basically tried to control the game from there. They didn’t do a bad job either only conceding an xG of 0.87. Roma have been playing some excellent football this season, but they went into the World Cup on a poor run of results – from that point of view the World Cup probably came at a good time for them, allowing them to re-set and start again. You have to feel this fixture is very important for them as it might set the tone for the next month or so.
AC Milan have been superb at home this season, they have only lost once and that was a very unlucky defeat to Napoli because they finished the game with an xG of over double what they conceded. Every other home game they have won, including games against Inter Milan (which isn’t really a “home/away” game but anyway!) and Juventus. You can’t really fault them looking at their under-lining numbers, but they actually aren’t as good as Roma when you do a direct comparison. That will give plenty of punters reason to lay AC Milan at 1.94 here, and indeed I couldn’t put anyone off the 1.94 lay. I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest. However, I feel the best option here is Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 – both sides have been rock solid at the back this season, and I can’t see Jose Mourinho setting up his Roma side to attack here. I would expect a very cagey game, and I feel Under 2.5 goals stands out compared to the AC Milan lay. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a 0-0 final score.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilRom
ATLETICO MADRID V BARCELONA
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish the day with a cracker as Atletico Madrid host Barcelona. This is a huge game for both sides with Atletico Madrid having a fight on their hands for a top four finish and Barcelona in the title race with Real Madrid. There’s no getting away from the fact that Atletico Madrid have been very disappointing over the last two seasons now. When Barcelona were well below their best last season, Atletico couldn’t even make a title challenge and then they have already dropped so many points this season they started the weekend 11 points behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. It’s a shame they have gone backwards so dramatically since winning the title in the 2020/21 season! Even after losing El Clasico, Barcelona took a two point lead at the top of the table into the World Cup, but they gave that advantage away last weekend with a 1-1 draw at home to Espanyol. They were unlucky as they finished the game with an xG of 2.95, but they need to take their chances. They have had more financial issues crop up in the media this week too, and Lewandowski has been handed a three match ban for his red card against Osasuna earlier in the season – before of appeals that’s only landing now.
Barcelona still come into the game as favourites however, even without their star striker. They are currently 2.37 at the time of writing, and they will be a popular selection given how average Atletico have been this season. Despite dropping points last weekend, Barcelona still played very well. If they can keep creating the same level of chances they have been all season then it’s hard to see past them here. They are creating nearly three goals per game which is incredible really, and they haven’t been conceding a lot either. That is under 1.0. Atletico are always strong at home, so I’m not going to go mad here with the stakes however the 2.37 is too big to turn down on Barcelona. They have been playing football at a much better level compared to Atletico this season, and three points is a nice bet to finish what should be a cracking day of football!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona to beat Atletico Madrid at 2.37 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlBar
