NATIONS LEAGUE SUNDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s Nations League Group Stage matches with a recommended BETDAQ bet. REPUBLIC OF IRELAND v WALES, ENGLAND v BELGIUM, FRANCE v PORTUGAL, NORTHERN IRELAND v AUSTRIA and SCOTLAND v SLOVAKIA.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND V WALES
2pm We have another day of huge Nations League games on Sunday and we start early with Republic of Ireland hosting Wales. Ireland crashed out of Euro 2020 (or Euro 2021 now!) on Thursday after losing on penalties to Slovakia. Ireland will feel hard done by, because they probably put in one of their best performances for years. Slovakia were missing some key players with injuries, and while there wasn’t a huge amount in it, Ireland deserved to win based on the chances created. The problem for Ireland is that they just don’t have a natural goal scorer. Even when they created a superb chance, the finish was always tame.
Wales arrive here having lost 3-0 to England in a friendly on Thursday, Wales were without Bale or Ramsey and it was a disjointed game at times. They will be better tonight, and the opposition easier. These two know each other well having been in a Nations League Group in 2019 too, where Wales finish four points ahead of Ireland, beating them 4-1 with home advantage and 1-0 away from home. You could say that Ireland have improved since then and Wales haven’t really got much better. The major issue is scoring for Ireland, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. The Ireland lay is tempting, but Wales are without Bale so I’m happy to back the draw at 3.1.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.1 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQIrlWal
ENGLAND V BELGIUM
5pm This should be a fascinating game. Southgate has a number of issues as England manager at the moment, and his players have been in the news for the wrong reasons. They warmed up for this fixture with a 3-0 win over Wales on Thursday, but Wales were without Bale and Ramsey. We should see some changes to the England XI, but they haven’t exactly been banging in the goals in this Nations League. They could only score once against Iceland, and had to settle for a 0-0 draw against Denmark.
Belgium have an excellent side, and are levels above what England have been playing recently. That’s what makes this game fascinating – how will England get on? It’s today that will give us an idea how this England side is going under Southgate. It’s not a surprise to see such an open market with not much between the sides. England are 2.8 and Belgium 2.74. Belgium could only draw with Ivory Coast in their midweek friendly, but they have been impressive in the Nations League and they have been scoring plenty of goals. I think that’s where the game will be won – Belgium can outscore England; although I expect a very close game and wouldn’t put anyone off the draw, but for me Belgium are worth a small investment.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Belgium to beat England at 2.74 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQEngBlm
FRANCE V PORTUGAL
7.45pm This is a big game in Group A3. Both sides have started with two wins each against Sweden and Croatia, and the fixtures between these two will decide who goes through to the Nations League Finals. Croatia aren’t the force of old, they peaked at the last World Cup and haven’t been seen at their best since – so while Portugal did impressively beat them to start their Nations League, the overall signs are they are an aging side. They failed to top their European Qualifying Group, finishing behind a Ukraine side who usually come up short against the top sides.
France are in a totally different place compared to Portugal. They have just won the last major tournament and their side are all at their peak. They can score from anywhere and you could probably argue that the likes of Pogba actually perform better for France than Manchester United. Their side just works. I’m surprise they are as big as 2.16 to beat this Portugal side, and they are very much worth backing at those odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win France to beat Portugal at 2.16 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQFraPor
NORTHERN IRELAND V AUSTRIA
7.45pm Northern Ireland come into the fixture on a high after going through on penalties against Bosnia & Herzegovina on Thursday night. Not many, myself included, gave them much chance before kick-off and things got worse as they found themselves 1-0 down very early. To their credit they battled hard, as they always do in fairness, and they pulled it back to 1-1 before toughing it out to win the penalty shootout. They won’t be too afraid of facing Slovakia in the next Play-off either looking at their performance against Ireland.
Despite coming into the game on a high, Northern Ireland find themselves bottom of Group B1. They have only managed a draw from two games, while Austria have one win and one loss. This looks like an open Group, and a home win would put Northern Ireland right back in the mix, but a loss would see them in huge trouble. Austria have been a rock solid side for a while now, and their loss against Romania would have come as a shock. They qualified for Euro 2020 and although Northern Ireland always battle hard, Austria should outclass them together.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Austria to beat Northern Ireland at 1.86 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQNirAst
SCOTLAND V SLOVAKIA
7.45pm Both these sides will be in a party mood as they both came through their European Play-offs on Thursday night after penalties! Both had very close games without many chances. Scotland had the better chances against Israel but couldn’t score, while Ireland had the better chances against Slovakia but couldn’t score either! Slovakia are missing some key players through injury, but I still can’t have Scotland as short as 2.1 to beat them tonight.
We landed our Scotland lay on Thursday night, and they have consistently come up short for a while now. They just don’t have enough quality in their side and struggle to score goals. I take on board that Ireland out-performed Slovakia on Thursday night and that they are missing players – but I can’t see 2.1 being a value price here. I can see the game being much closer than those odds suggest and from a value point of view I’m very happy to lay Scotland.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Scotland to beat Slovakia at 2.1 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQScoSlk
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