NATIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews the Nations League Final between CROATIA v SPAIN and also the playoff between NETHERLANDS v ITALY both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NETHERLANDS V ITALY
2pm We have a massive Sunday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as it’s Nations League Final day! Croatia and Spain will do battle for the trophy later, but we start the day with the third place playoff as Netherlands clash with Italy. It’s hard to know what motivation these two sides will have for this game, but it should be a good game nevertheless. A third place playoff is never where you want to be really! It will be interesting to see the team news here, and from a trading point of view that is something to watch closely – managers may opt to change things around and give some of the younger up-and-coming players a chance here. Essentially this is a glorified friendly so that’s the view we should take when looking at the markets. Netherlands will be disappointed to be here – they went into the first Semi-Final against Croatia as the odds on favourites, were 1-0 up at half-time before it all started to go wrong from there. They finished the game with a bang to force extra-time but how good was Luka Modric for Croatia? Just when you think he’s getting a little old at 37, he can still produce wonderful performances. Italy will no doubt be disappointed to be here too, as I said above nobody wants to play this game, but they went into the Spain game as the underdogs.
Netherlands come into this game as the favourites again, understandable given they are hosts but obviously that didn’t work out for them in the Semi-Final! The Netherlands trade 2.32 at the time of writing with Italy 3.2 and the draw is 3.7. While I expected two cagey games during the week, it’s hard to see either side sitting back here. I expect a very open game, and that will likely suit the Netherlands more. They are far better when they are attacking openly – however they have a habit of leaking sloppy goals. They tried to stop that issue at the World Cup, but they created very little. This type of fixture will be ideal for them, and I’d expect Italy to fight fire-with-fire. My eyes go straight to the goals market here, and Over 2.5 goals is a cracking bet at 1.76 in my opinion. I know this Italian side is still going through a period of transition but they have a lot of attacking talent on the pitch and Netherlands will give them a lot of chances too. I’d have Overs ten ticks shorter, but I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes given it’s a third place playoff game. Three points feels the correct stake.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NetIta
CROATIA V SPAIN
7.45pm We finish Sunday with the big game of the weekend as Croatia meet Spain in the Nations League Final for 2022/23! In classic Croatia fashion, they needed extra-time to beat Netherlands in the first Semi-Final – they went to extra-time in two knockout games in the World Cup and were successful twice (on penalties) too! Dare I say Croatia wouldn’t mind a draw here in 90 minutes! Spain exited the World Cup after their first knockout game went to extra-time and penalties, so perhaps there is a mental battle to be won there for Croatia. Spain come into the game as the favourites though, and on paper they have a much better squad. However it’s hard to knock this Croatian side – they just grind out so many results. At the time of writing, Spain are the short odds favourites at 2.06 with Croatia 4.1 and the draw is 3.6. We had a lightening quick start to the Semi-Final between Spain and Italy with two goals in the first 11 minutes, however it was a tense affair and Spain had to wait until the 88th minute to find the winner. I have to say it’s hard to see anything bar a slightly cagey affair here – especially in the first half. I know we had goals in the first half in both Semi-Finals, but I can’t see Croatia wanting an open game here. I would expect them to be quite negative with their tactics here, unless they go behind and then they will have to make changes. I feel the Spain price at 2.06 is a little short, and I definitely wouldn’t put anyone off a lay there. I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
It’s also worth looking closely at the goals market here. Ironically, Under 2.5 goals is the exact same price as Over 2.5 goals in the third place playoff! It’s very hard to see a game filled with chances here, unlike the third place playoff, and Under 2.5 goals looks a very nice position at 1.76. I know we had goals in the Semi-Finals, but I can see this game going like the Champions League Final between Manchester City and Inter Milan – nobody will want to give an inch early on, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see 0-0 at half-time. As I said above too, Croatia will absolutely not fear extra-time and they could likely play for a 0-0 draw too – all the pressure is on Spain here as the favourites. Spain have been disappointing lately though, and I equally couldn’t put anyone off the lay at 2.06 – however Under 2.5 goals will be my best bet at 1.76. Spain’s xG figures have been low for a while against quality opposition, and Croatia will be in full grind-a-result mode here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CroSpa
