SUNDAY NATIONS LEAGUE PREVIEW: The Ultra previews SCOTLAND v GREECE, SPAIN v NETHERLANDS and REPUBLIC OF IRELAND v BULGARIA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SCOTLAND V GREECE
5pm We have another huge night of Nations League action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! What better way to spend a Sunday evening as it’s crunch time in the Nations League Playoffs and Quarter-Finals. No double all eyes will be on the Quarter-Finals that all start at 7-45pm, but we kick off the day a little earlier as Scotland host Greece. Scotland recorded a massive 1-0 win away from home in the first leg on Thursday night, and now they are in an excellent position. Greece went into that game as the clear favourites with home advantage – they were trading close to 2.0 to win there and as I said in my preview, Scotland would have been happy with a draw on paper. A win is a bonus, and now with home advantage they can finish the job – Scotland have been a lot more comfortable with home advantage over the last few years – they’ve had some massive results here! Greece have made a lot of progress too in recent years, and this should be a cracking game with high stakes. As I said in my preview on Thursday, the Nations League ranking for these two sides is absolutely massive because they are always likely to come up against top sides in qualifying for a major tournament.
They rely on the playoff route, and we all know how important your ranking is for that. We have an open betting heat here; Scotland come into the game as favourites with home advantage at 2.66 with Greece 3.0 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Greece will feel exceptionally unlucky after the first leg. They finished with an xG of over 2.0, and Scotland barely created anything bar the penalty. You have to give Scotland massive credit though; I expected them to approach the game in a very cagey fashion and when they got ahead, they saw it out. Greece have to go chasing the game now, and we might get a more entertaining affair. I was happy to back Under 2.5 goals in the first leg, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Unders at around 1.7 here. That doesn’t jump off the page as massive value – we actually have a very interesting market here because Greece were clearly the better side in the first leg but you’d have to allow Scotland improvement with home advantage. I know we have an open market, but I would actually have it even more open – I’d have Scotland a little bigger and Greece a little shorter; if it gets tense Scotland will defend their position given the one goal lead.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Scotland to beat Greece at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ScoGre
SPAIN V NETHERLANDS
7.45pm We have four superb Quarter-Finals kicking off at 7.45pm. You could easily make an argument that each one of them could be the highlight fixture of the evening, but the pick of them in my opinion is Spain hosting the Netherlands. This was the most entertaining first leg as the sides played out a 2-2 draw, and additionally the tie is in the balance – although Netherlands have work to do given they are away from home now! As you would expect, Spain come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.72 with Netherlands 5.4 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Netherlands were in a great position heading into stoppage time on Thursday, but Spain grabbed a 2-2 draw with a goal in the 93rd minute. Spain finished the game with the higher xG figure, so they deserved a result. The Euro 2024 Champions came through a competitive Group without any drama, while Netherlands finished up behind Germany, whom they have clashed with a lot lately. At the Group stages, Netherlands games were very entertaining when they had home advantage at the Group stage, but it was a different story away from home – Under 2.5 goals landed in all three away games.
It will be very interesting to see what tactics Netherlands employ here; they are obviously up against it now away from home against a top side, but they don’t exactly have to chase the game from the start. Likewise, Spain don’t need to make the game too open either. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading odds on, but there are plenty of willing layers at around 1.8 – we could see that price tick upwards before kick off too. I would lean towards Spain in the match odds market at 1.72; indeed I couldn’t put anyone off that position looking at the figures from the first leg. However, I do feel that the market is expecting a more open game than we’ll get here. Under 2.5 goals looks good value to me at 2.2 and I’m happy to have a small bet. Netherlands, as we have seen at major tournaments, can really shut up shop if they want to. I do feel they’ll be very cagey here, at least in the first half, and while the second half should be more open, the 2.2 looks a little big on Unders in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpaNed
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND V BULGARIA
7.45pm We move back to the Playoffs to finish the Nations League for this International break as the Republic of Ireland host Bulgaria. Ireland have put themselves in a good position after winning the first leg 2-1 – they had the lower possession but as I said in my preview, being away from home suits Ireland because they can counter attack and sides are more willing to attack themselves. Ireland tend to struggle a lot creating chances when sides sit back against them; obviously in this situation Bulgaria have to attack again with them being behind in the tie. Similar thoughts apply to Ireland as Scotland above; they are very unlikely to qualify directly for major tournament so they will always have to go the playoff route and from that point of view a Nations League ranking is exceptionally important. Ireland have come very close to relegation this time around, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they took the direct relegation place next time – although there have been signs of improvement under the new manager, albeit against low quality opposition. It will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure here; they are expected to win again in 90 minutes and have the one goal advantage too.
Ireland come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.59 with Bulgaria 7.0 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Obviously there is a gulf in class between the sides based on the level they play their football at, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.59 on Ireland here. That’s a very short price for a side that doesn’t win often; however they should get the job done here – it’s just hard to justify them being sub 1.5 for example, and thus value at 1.59. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here; we saw a more open game than I expected in the first leg and with Bulgaria having to chase the game here I think we’ll see goals again. The market has Under 2.5 goals as the favourite and that’s not surprising given the lack of attacking talent on display, but from a value point of view I’m happy with a small bet on Over 2.5 goals at 2.26. Bulgaria having to chase the game should suit Ireland, and as we know Ireland aren’t fantastic at the back either so we could have a more entertaining game than everyone expects here!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IreBul
