SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews ROMA v JUVENTUS with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We have another cracker from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange on Sunday as Roma host Juventus from Serie A! This is an absolutely huge clash in the top four battle in Italy – you could actually argue that this is the biggest game of the season given Inter Milan are running away with the title. It’s been a miserable week for Juventus; they lost last weekend to Como and then exited the Champions League midweek too. That loss, along with losing to Inter Milan previously, left them sitting outside the top four, and Roma have a four point cushion on Juventus. This is a massive chance for Roma to create a proper cushion with home advantage here too.
Obviously for Juventus, the damage was done in the first leg against Galatasaray so it’s been a poor two weeks. The question now is how they respond. There are two ways of looking at it: either they come into this fixture flat and tired, still processing the Champions League exit, or they focus on a massive fixture here and the battle for the top four spot. Juventus have been quite tricky to read this season – their under-lining numbers are superb but they just haven’t got the results. They have an average xG created of 1.90, which is the second best attacking figure in Serie A – only Inter Milan are ahead of them. Their defensive numbers are equally impressive with an average xG conceded of just 1.11, the fouth best defensive figure but so close to Inter at the top with a figure of 0.96. Juventus should be in the title race with those figures.
Roma aren’t far behind them; they are having a cracking season. They are third in attack with an average xG created of 1.61, still an impressive figure even if it’s miles off the top two, and third in defence with an average xG conceded of 1.10 – marginally better than Juventus at the back but only by 0.01. With the two sides beside each other in the table, and beside each other on performance levels, it’s no surprise that we have an open market here. Roma are the favourites with home advantage at 2.76 with Juventus 3.0 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. The Olimpico can be a fortress too, so it’s no surprise to see Roma as a marginal favourites; the worry with both sides here is they haven’t been converting all their chances.
Obviously that’s been a major issue for Juventus. They have struggled to create good quality chances for a few seasons – they have fixed that this season – and now they have to start converting their chances! When you put it all together, I feel this game screams tight and cagey. Both sides have the two of the best defensive records in Serie A this season, and they haven’t exactly been banging in goals for fun either. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.69 which looks a shade big to me. The draw is also very much in the mix and wouldn’t surprise me at all – that looks a good value bet at 3.2 and I couldn’t put anyone off that, but on balance I prefer the Unders bet in what should be a tight game.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SARoJu
