SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ATALANTA v INTER MILAN and ATLETICO MADRID v BARCELONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We have a blockbuster Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Two fixtures from Serie A and La Liga right out of the top drawer which will have big impacts on the title race in both leagues – it’s the perfect way to end the week before we head into the first International break of 2025. We start the evening in Serie A as Atalanta host Inter Milan – while these two aren’t the top two in the table coming into this weekend, they are the top two based on performance levels. Atalanta are only three points behind Inter Milan, and in-between them coming into this weekend sit Napoli; however these two have been playing much better football. Atalanta marginally have the best attacking figure in Serie A with an average xG created of 1.73; Inter are just behind them at 1.71. There’s barely anything between the sides at the back too; Inter have an average xG conceded of 1.13 with Atalanta conceding marginally more chances with a figure of 1.16. Put everything together and there’s only 0.01 between the sides on performance levels with the two of them top of that table – we should have a high quality game here, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.
As you would expect, we have an exceptionally open betting heat. Atalanta are the marginal favourites at 2.78 with Inter Milan 2.86 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Both sides have dropped their fair share of points recently – it looked like Atalanta were falling away from the title race after a run of four games without a win. Since then they have thrown in a few draws, but they are unbeaten and a 4-0 win last weekend against Juventus got them back into the mix. The wheels are falling off Napoli’s season, but they were over-performing, and then while it looked like Inter might pull away – they have dropped points in some huge fixtures recently losing to Fiorentina, Juventus and drawing with Napoli. It’s easy to see why we have such an open betting heat here with the two sides having very similar profiles. The Over/Under 2.5 goals markets is exceptionally even too – at the moment Over 2.5 goals is 2.0, but you wouldn’t be surprise if you could get 2.0 on Unders by kick off as well. I feel the draw stands out as the value option at 3.4 here – it’s hard to see a very open game with so much on the line, and while Under 2.5 goals is a tempting bet in that regard, both sides are so evenly matched it’s hard to see past a small position on the draw at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtnInt
ATLETICO MADRID V BARCELONA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Sunday with another blockbuster fixture as Atletico Madrid host Barcelona. You only have to look at the table to see what a massive game this is for both sides – they met recently in the Copa del Rey Semi-Final and we saw an incredible 4-4 draw in the first leg – hopefully we see as much drama as that game! It’s been a difficult week for Atletico Madrid; they dropped points in the title race last weekend with a 2-1 loss away to Getafe and then exited the Champions League on penalties midweek against Real Madrid. They were always up against it going into the second leg one goal down, but they did the hard part to win 1-0 only to have all that VAR drama in the penalty shootout with the double hit. Obviously there was a huge debate around that; to be honest it wasn’t clearly a double hit in my opinion. Even when the TV camera zoomed in it was hard to see. That loss to Getafe left Atletico one point behind Barcelona and Real Madrid at the top of La Liga, but importantly Barcelona have a game in hand so this fixture is massive for Atletico to get back into the title race.
Barcelona come into the game as the favourites at 2.3 with Atletico Madrid 3.2 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. Atletico managed to beat Barcelona 2-1 when the sides met earlier in the season, and I have to say I was surprised to see Barcelona trading as short as 2.3 when I clicked into the market. Atletico have been exceptionally tough to beat at home this season, and Diego Simeone always sets them up so solidly they’ve been tough to score against too. Barcelona have clearly been playing the better football this season – their average xG created of 1.91 is the best attacking figure in La Liga compared to Atletico at 1.43 but Atletico have managed to grind out so many results with home advantage I just feel the value option is the Barcelona lay. Purely from a value point of view, I do feel we’ll see a closer game than those odds suggest – Atletico have only conceded 18 goals in their 27 La Liga games this season, and if Barcelona do win here they’ll have to fully earn it. I’m happy with the 2.3 lay, but not going crazy with the stakes.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Atletico Madrid at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtiBrc
