SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v ROMA and REAL BETIS v SEVILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V ROMA
5pm We have a fascinating Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! We have two very interesting markets from Serie A and La Liga – two home favourites but there are plenty of layers keen to take them on as well. We kick off the day with Napoli hosting Roma, and you could write a book about Napoli this season with their performances versus their results. Napoli started the weekend sitting down in eighth place, a whopping 37 points behind Inter Milan who were confirmed as the Champions on Monday night. That is quite the gap when you look at the xG table and see them sitting at the top with the best attacking figure in Serie A! Not only do they have the best attacking figure, they also have the joint-second best defensive figure. They basically have a title winning performance level, but sit in mid-table. When you give them an overall performance level, it’s +0.72 which is the same figure as Inter Milan! So, what’s gone wrong this season? Napoli have really struggled to convert their chances – it’s been well known at this stage that they have had major issues putting the ball in the back of the net. Couple that with the fact that they have conceded a few more goals than they should have and that makes them one of the most under-performing sides in Serie A this season.
The Napoli situation is definitely interesting from a betting point of view. You have a side playing superb football but not winning – at what stage do you just give up on them actually converting their chances and getting results? They come into this game as the marginal odds on favourites at 1.97 with Roma 4.2 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. It’s been a bad week for Roma – they lost to Bologna on Monday night and that very likely killed their top four challenge. They are now seven points behind Bologna and quite they have a game in hand, that was a must win game for Roma especially with home advantage. It might be interesting to see the team news here because Roma have a massive Europa League Semi-Final on Thursday night too. That Bologna loss was only Roma’s second loss since they sacked Jose Mourinho which is a pretty good record in fairness. With Napoli struggling to score goals, the 1.97 looks a little short to me and I feel that’s offering a good value price on the draw at 3.75 in what should be a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NpiRom
REAL BETIS V SEVILLA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Sunday night as Real Betis host Sevilla. We have another interesting market here with the home side a strong favourite again. Real Betis are trading 2.14 with Sevilla 3.95 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Although Real Betis might get a spot in Europe yet, you’d have to say that this has been a disappointing season for both clubs. Real Betis seem to have gone backwards again – they won the Copa del Rey and since then they’ve been quite poor to be honest. Sevilla sit in the bottom half of the table, and another hung around the relegation battle for far too long. Much like Napoli in Serie A, there is a huge difference between their xG figures and their actual results. Their average xG created is 1.53 which is the fourth best attacking figure in La Liga yet they sit in mid-table. I know Real Madrid and Barcelona have been miles ahead of the rest on attacking figures, but that just highlights that Sevilla should be in the European spots. Compare that figure to Real Betis at 1.34 which is basically a mid-table figure. Both sides have very similar figures at the back, but the reason why the sides are sitting where they are is Sevilla have massively under-performed in front of goal and Real Betis over-perform at the back.
Much like the Napoli thoughts in the above game, the betting markets are always interesting. We have a home side as favourites who concede chances but have a good record at the back, and an away side who create chances but have a bad record actually converting them. Sevilla have finally started to get results recently; they’ve moved up the table with just one loss from their last six games. They’ve managed to win four of those, including their last three. Real Betis have been very average this season, and while I know they have home advantage here and that’s a big positive for them, I still feel that the 2.14 is too short on the home win here. Sevilla have been playing much better than their results suggest this season and I strongly feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest. From a value point of view, I’m very happy with the Real Betis lay at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Real Betis to beat Sevilla at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetSev
