SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FROSINONE v UDINESE and SEVILLA v BARCELONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FROSINONE V UDINESE
7.45pm We bring the curtain down on the European 2023/24 season on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Serie A and La Liga action on Sunday night. Unfortunately with everything decided in La Liga we won’t have much drama there, but we do have some huge games in Serie A and that’s where we start the action. There’s been a huge amount of sides involved in the Serie A relegation battle this season, and it’s not a surprise that it comes down to the final day. We have a huge game as Frosinone host Udinese with both sides in danger; as things stand Empoli sit in the relegation zone on 33 points with Udinese just one point ahead of them on 34 with Frosinone just ahead of them on 35 points – everything to play for then! Empoli are at home to Roma, which is obviously a difficult fixture but Roma are so far ahead of Lazio on goal difference with a three point advantage they have the Europa League spot in the bag already. Empoli head into that game as 2.04 favourites which does feel quite short, but we have a very open betting heat here. Frosinone are the favourites at 2.56 with Udinese 3.25 and the draw is the same price at 3.25 at the time of writing.
You have to say this is a fascinating situation, and I’m sure both sets of fans will have one eye on the Empoli game too! Unless Empoli go ahead reasonably early, a draw would be absolutely fine for both these sides and it will be interesting to see what tactics they employ. As you can tell by them being in the relegation battle on the final day, both sides have been average this season. Udinese have an average xG created of only 1.09 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in Serie A this season, while Frosinone have an average xG conceded of 1.51 which is the fourth worst defensive figures this season. We basically have a very limited side going forward against a side who concede far too many chances. The two sides have finished the season very strongly though, getting results at the right time under pressure. Udinese are unbeaten in their last four, while Frosinone have only lost once in their last eight and that was against the Champions Inter Milan. Both sides have had a lot of draws in their runs, and I feel the draw looks good value at 3.25 here – both sides are very similar and everything points to have a very close game here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.25 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FroUdi
SEVILLA V BARCELONA
8pm We finish the European season in La Liga as Sevilla host Barcelona. As I said above, there won’t be any major drama in La Liga with everything decided – from the point of view of these two sides, both can say they’ve had disappointing seasons. Any season without a trophy is always a disappointing season for Barcelona while Sevilla won’t even finish in the top half of the table. They got out of jail last season with a Europa League win to get back into the Champions League, but there’s no get out of jail card coming this season. It will be fascinating to see what happens over the summer; who goes and who stays. The same can be said about Barcelona – we already know the manager is leaving and there’s a lot of big clubs looking for a new manager this summer. As things stand, Hansi Flick is highly likely to replace him however Barcelona have done so many u-turns this season it’s hard to know what story to believe at this rate! Barcelona have only marginally been behind Real Madrid in terms of performance levels this season, but they’ve been really sloppy at the back and that’s been the major difference.
They are only 0.08 behind Real Madrid on average xG created and only 0.05 behind them at the back – fine margins! Sevilla have massively under-performed this season, they have the fifth best average xG created this season and should definitely be higher up the table. However, they have been sloppy at the back too while also really struggling to take their chances. Getting a natural goal scorer must be their top priority this summer. We have an interesting market, and Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.89 with Sevilla 4.1 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because I feel this game absolutely screams goals. We have two good attacking sides who have been pretty average at the back all season, and both have nothing to play for too. That just screams an open game to me with plenty of chances, and Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.53 – I feel it’s worth a five star NAP to finish the season in style!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevBrc
