SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FIORENTINA v UDINESE and AC MILAN v ROMA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FIORENTINA V UDINESE
5pm It’s a quieter than usual Sunday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as we have a Spanish Super Cup meaning we have a small La Liga fixture list. We do have some cracking games in Serie A though! Everyone will be talking about AC Milan v Roma later in the day, but we start the action with a cracking fixture as well as Fiorentina host Udinese. Fiorentina came into this weekend sitting in fourth position and they can dream of Champions League football for the time being anyway! Obviously they have a huge battle on their hands to actually stay there, but after finishing just one place outside the European spots last season they have given themselves a cracking chance of getting European football again. They come into this game as the odds on favourites – the home win is trading 1.7 with Udinese 6.0 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Udinese have been a little under par this season, and they start the weekend sitting down in 16th just three points outside of the relegation zone. They could very well have a relegation battle on their hands, but surely they can be classes as “too good to go down,”
While Udinese have been playing average football this season, their average xG of 1.13 is about the sixth worst attacking figure in Serie A. There are sides worse than them! They have been hanging around that position at the back too, and to be honest I was surprised to see Fiorentina trading as high as 1.7 when I clicked into the market. Fiorentina fully deserve to be where they are in the table – they have the fourth best average xG created and the third best average xG conceded in Serie A. They have been solid all over the pitch, and Udinese have really struggled to create chances away from home too with an average xG created of just under 1.0. Fiorentina have been excellent at home, and rock solid at the back too. Obviously Under 2.5 goals is tempting at 1.84 and Both Teams Not To Score at two ticks bigger at 1.86. That’s Fiorentina keeping a clean sheet in my opinion, however we’re getting so much value at 1.7 I feel the home win is worth a Max Bet here. As I said, Fiorentina have been fantastic this season and they should win here – the 1.7 is too big.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Fiorentina to beat Udinese at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioUdi
AC MILAN V ROMA
7.45pm We stay in Serie A to finish the weekend with a blockbuster as AC Milan host Roma. This should be a fascinating game, and it’s really one need a result in too. They slipped down to eighth after a draw with Atalanta last weekend. Jose Mourinho got sent off, but the home crowd were loving that and chanted his name – Jose and Roma have been a match made in heaven really. He’s expected to leave at the end of the season, I suppose he knows he can’t compete for the title here and that’s his level but he is adored by the Roma fans. Still, Roma are well off the pace this season – AC Milan start this game ten points ahead of Roma. The home side come into this game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on – on paper, AC Milan haven’t exactly set the world alight this season. The home win is trading 2.22 with Roma 3.8 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. You’d assume that Roma will want to keep this game as tight as possible – that’s usually the mindset of Mourinho away from home in big games. Roma have been fantastic at the back this season though – their average xG conceded is just 1.07 which is the second best record at the back in Serie A this season. Only Inter have conceded fewer chances, and there’s only 0.01 in the difference too.
The problem for Roma is their average xG created is only 1.33, so they aren’t creating a huge volume of chances. That figure is basically mid-table form. AC Milan have been creating more, but they are also conceding more. Their average xG created is 1.46 and their average conceded is 1.36. They have been massively over-performing this season all over the pitch – they are scoring more than they should and conceding less than they should. I dare say that they are lucky to be sitting within the top four, and as the season goes on I would fancy them to drop out but Serie A has been quite random this season. For example, Napoli have the best xG created figure this season but look how far back they are and how many points they have dropped already. Thoughts turn to Under 2.5 goals given how this game is likely to be set up, however we usually see drama between these two. Under 2.5 goals has only won once in the last seven meetings. I do expect a very close game here though, and from a value point of view the 2.22 on AC Milan is worth laying in my opinion. The sides are close on paper, and I would have a more open market.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Roma at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmRma
