SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v FIORENTINA and AC MILAN v ROMA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V FIORENTINA
5pm We have a blockbuster Sunday from Serie A on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have two absolute crackers as Juventus host Fiorentina and AC Milan host Roma. We have two home favourites, and it’s quite easy to pick holes in both of them too. We kick off the evening with Juventus hosting Fiorentina – this is a massive game for both sides as they sit just outside the top four. Juventus remain unbeaten in Serie A this season – the only side unbeaten – but they went into Christmas nine points behind league leaders Atalanta. While they have the unbeaten tag, their backers haven’t been having a good time of things with ten draws from their 17 games. Fiorentina went into Christmas off the back of back-to-back losses and while they were always likely to come up short in a top four battle, those losses were huge blows. Especially the 2-1 loss at home to Udinese because they have been playing such solid football at home this season. We’re going to have some big opinions on the Juventus price here on either side of the book; they are trading a shade of odds on at 1.99 with Fiorentina 4.5 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing.
It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in either side here. Juventus have an average xG created of 1.33 which is a mid-table figure in Serie A. They are clearly struggling to create good quality chances, and that’s the main reason why they have been having so many draws this season. They’ve also been rock solid at the back; they have the best defensive figure in the league. Backing Juventus at odds on this season clearly hasn’t been profitable, but before we consider laying them we have to factor in Fiorentina’s away performances. They are only marginally creating more chances than they are conceding away from home – an average xG created of 1.27 won’t exactly be giving Juventus too many worries coming into this game. In the match odds market, the draw definitely makes the most appeal at 3.6 in what should be a very close game. I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals as high as 1.83 when I clicked into the market here; I can see a very tight and cagey game without many chances, and the 1.83 looks cracking value.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvFir
AC MILAN V ROMA
7.45pm We finish Sunday with another massive Serie A clash as AC Milan host Roma. This is another huge game for both sides as they sit in mid-table, and quite possibly slipping away from the European spots. AC Milan are starting the day five points behind Juventus who sit in sixth, and then Roma are another seven points behind them. Obviously Roma have been through a lot already this season; they sacked their manager early when their under-lining numbers weren’t too bad and it just feels like they are going through a period of tradition at the moment. It’s like they reached a high under Jose Mourinho and it’s unlikely they’ll ever reach that high again. While both sides are clearly struggling to get over the line in games, they actually haven’t been playing too badly. AC Milan have the fourth highest attacking figure this season and Roma have the sixth – very respectable figures and it would make you believe that they can turn things around. AC Milan have really just struggled to get results, while Roma are marginally under-performing in front of goal and at the back too. We should have a fascinating game here – you even say a win here would kick start their season!
AC Milan come into the game as the favourites at 2.36 with Roma 3.35 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. Given the situation and where both sides are the table, it’s hard to have confidence in either side to be honest. They just haven’t been getting results. From that point of view, the 2.36 on AC Milan feels a little short here but I’m not confident enough to support Roma here. The market is also not sure what to expect with goals too! Under/Over is pretty much close to 2.0 on either side of the book; it’s hard to argue with that either because neither side have been reliable this season. This fixture has historically had goals though; eight of the last ten meetings have had Over 2.5 goals. I couldn’t put anyone off that at close to 2.0, but for me the draw makes a lot of appeal here at 3.55 in what should be a very close game between two sides that look very even on paper.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmRom
