SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v NAPOLI and ROMA v AC MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V NAPOLI
5pm It’s a blockbuster Sunday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange! All the focus turns to Serie A where we have two huge games to enjoy with four of the top five all in action again each other. Inter Milan will be watching with their feet up having played Friday night, and we should know a lot more about the title race and perhaps who’s in a strong position for a top four place after today. We kick the day off with Juventus hosting Napoli – Juventus have been playing some of the best football in Italy this season but they come into this weekend sitting outside the top four. They are three points off Roma sitting in fourth, and they are so far off Inter Milan they can’t be considered for the title race. However, they have stats like a title winning side – their average xG created at 1.90 and their average xG conceded at 1.07 are exceptionally impressive figures. That’s the second best attacking and defensive figure in Serie A – both times behind Inter Milan who have been fantastic! They had been building some nice momentum, but they threw in a loss last weekend away to Cagliari which came from nowhere.
Napoli have had a roller-coaster ride over the last few seasons. They won the title, finished in mid-table with the best attacking figure in Serie A, then won the title on the final day – over-performing in front of goal. They have struggled to keep up with Inter Milan this season; creating chances has been the issue as they only have the seventh best attacking figure. It’s no surprise to see Juventus come into the game as the favourites with home advantage. Juventus are trading 2.14 with Napoli 4.2 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Napoli are also under immense pressure in the Champions League; they dropped out of the top 24 this week with a draw and have to play Chelsea on the final matchday – they could easily exit at the Group stage which would be quite embarrassing. I feel the 2.14 is a tempting bet on Juventus here – they have played much better football compared to Napoli this season. Both sides have been very solid at the back too, and another option has to be Under 2.5 goals but the market is expecting a quiet game as that’s trading 1.57. I feel the Juventus win offers more value and they can grind out a win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Juventus to beat Napoli at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAJuNa
ROMA V AC MILAN
7.45pm We finish Sunday from Serie A with another cracker as Roma host AC Milan. This is a massive game for both sides as Roma aim to try to hold onto a top four spot and AC Milan try to keep up with Inter Milan. You have to feel that a loss for either side – especially also depending on the result earlier between Juventus and Napoli – will be a massive blow. It should be a high quality game too; both sides are sitting inside the top four on attacking figures with just 0.03 between them. They have both been solid at the back too so it’s no surprise that we have a very open betting heat. Roma are the favourites at 2.84 with AC Milan 3.0 and the draw is 3.1 at the time of writing. It’s hard to see anything bar a very close game here – Roma have actually been keeping their games very tight. They aren’t converting all their chances, but that is balanced out by how little they are conceding. They have actually conceded less than half of the chances on xG. In the 21 Serie A games Roma have been involved in, Over 2.5 goals has only collected five times.
With a stat like that, attention has to turn towards that market. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.74 here and I have to say I was expecting it to be a little shorter when I clicked into the market. AC Milan have also been getting away with things at the back a little too, their average xG conceded is a very respectable 1.25 but they are conceding less than a goal a game on average. As I said above, I expect a very close and cagey game here – in the match odds market I feel the draw makes appeal at 3.1 but I do feel that the Unders option offers the best value here at 1.74. Roma haven’t been too adventurous in their games this season and I can’t see AC Milan being too open away from home either. Obviously with so much attacking talent on the pitch, an early goal could easily see sparks fly but I feel we’re getting enough value at 1.74 to have a confident bet on Unders.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SARoAc
