LA LIGA PREVIEW: The Ultra previews VILLARREAL v BARCELONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VILLARREAL V BARCELONA
3.15pm It’s the last Sunday before Christmas in Europe, and we have a huge fixture from La Liga on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Villarreal host Barcelona, and if the home side can pull off a win here they will be in an exceptionally strong position – we might actually start including them in the title race! As things stand coming into the weekend, Barcelona sit top but Villarreal are eight points behind them with two games in hand. If they can win here, then they could be in a position to go top should they win their games in hand!
I have to say, I didn’t have Villarreal in the La Liga title race on my bingo card this season – but let’s see how they get on here! Barcelona have been exceptional this season, and it’s no surprise that they come into the game as the odds on favourites. Barcelona are trading 1.91 with Villarreal 3.7 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. While Villarreal deserve massive credit for how many results they’ve managed this season, when you look at the performance levels of both sides there is quite a gulf in class.
Barcelona have the best attacking figure and the best defensive figure in La Liga this season – you cannot argue with them being top of the table. Their average xG created is 2.24 compared to Villarreal at 1.54. Barcelona have also been rock solid at the back – their average xG conceded is only 1.04 and for Villarreal it’s 1.37 which is a mid-table standard. What has Villarreal on the edge of the title battle is they have been over-performing in front of goal and at the back so far this season.
At home though, Villarreal’s performance levels are much better. The problems have all been away from home. Compare their figures – at home they created an average xG of 1.9 but away it drops to 1.11. They concede an average xG of 1.06 at home and away this jumps to 1.72 – it’s like they have two different sides. They’ve actually done so well to only lose twice away from home this season, and those games were against Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid. At home, they’ve won every game bar one – a 2-2 draw against Real Betis.
From a Villarreal point of view, you could argue that when they’ve come up against the top sides that they have come up short. However, their home performance levels are very impressive and while I know Barcelona have been playing some exceptionally good football this season, the 1.91 feels a little short here. Villarreal might be over-performing, but they’ve won their last six La Liga games and confidence must be sky high. I feel they will make this game closer than odds of 1.91 suggest, and I’m happy with a small Barcelona lay at the odds from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Villarreal at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLViBa
