COOPA DEL REY: The Ultra previews ATHLETIC BILBAO v ATLETICO MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATHLETIC BILBAO V ATLETICO MADRID
8.30pm The focus from Europe on Thursday night is the Copa del Rey Semi-Final between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid. We have an exceptionally open market here on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. Both sides sit within three points of each other in the La Liga table, and what makes the market more interesting here is Athletic Bilbao have a 1-0 lead, so a draw is fine for them. Athletic Bilbao come into the game as favourites at 2.58 with Atletico Madrid 3.1 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing.
Atletico Madrid will need a massive performance here to reach the final. They have been struggling away from home this season, and obviously they start the tie 1-0 down too. Atletico will be absolutely gutted with the first leg; they finished the game with an xG of 1.78 but couldn’t find the net. Now they are massively on the backfoot. Away from home in La Liga this season Atletico have conceded more chances than they have created. It’s not marginal, but they have struggled. Atletico have dropped points in nine La Liga games this season and eight of them have been away from home!
Add to that as well that Athletic Bilbao have been fantastic at home. They have played one less game than Barcelona at home for example, and have more points. They sit third in the La Liga Home table. Their average xG created at home this season is a very impressive 1.77 and not only that, they have been rock solid at the back too. Their average xG conceded is only 1.10. They have only lost once at home all season, 2-0 to Real Madrid on the opening weekend. The task at hand for Atletico is huge in my opinion.
It will be interesting to see how this one lays out; obviously Athletic Bilbao have a lead so they will want this game to be as boring as possible. However, they have been so impressive at home this season it would be foolish of them to change tactics now. I can see them being very cagey to begin with though, as we know a draw is absolutely fine. Atletico will have to make the running, and that could open things up. Bilbao beat Atletico 2-0 earlier in the season, and totally controlled the game too.
We usually have tight and cagey games between these two. We’ve had Under 2.5 goals land in the last four meetings. That’s trading odds on here at 1.72, and while I couldn’t put anyone off that bet we could see the game become very open late on at Atletico get desperate to score. I know they don’t have to win, but I feel the 2.58 on Bilbao here is a little big given their home form this season. I’d expect a cagey first half so you might get a bigger price in-running but as the game opens up Bilbao will have plenty of chances to win the game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Atletico Madrid at 2.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BilAtl
