EUROPA LEAGUE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Thursday’s Europa League season opening games between REAL BETIS V CELTIC, DINAMO ZAGREB V WEST HAM, RANGERS V LYON and LEICESTER V NAPOLI all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
REAL BETIS V CELTIC
5.45pm After a fantastic two nights of Champions League football, we kick off the new Europa League season on Thursday! Although we might lack the glamour of the Champions League, we have some fascinating betting markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the evening with Real Betis hosting Celtic, we have a lot of very competitive games tonight and this one will be no different. However, Real Betis are one of my best bets of the night. Celtic just aren’t as good as they once were and that fact has been highlighted in Scotland recently. They lost the title race by 25 points last season, and they have already lost two of their five games this season. With Rangers not losing a game last season; you could nearly say Celtic’s title hopes are gone already – that would be dramatic, but they just aren’t good enough anymore.
Real Betis are a classy side, and unlike Celtic, they are heading in the right direction. They managed to break into European football by finished 6th last season in La Liga after a battle with Real Sociedad and Villarreal for the two spots. They got their first win over the season at the weekend with an impressive performance away to Granada in a 2-1 win. Prior to that they had to play Real Madrid and only lost by one goal, and had to settle for two 1-1 draws against Mallorca and Cadiz. Celtic are a much better side at home in Europe, and there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here. Betis look cracking value at 1.74 and I would have them much shorter. At the odds, they have to be a Max Bet for me – hopefully it goes as well as Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig the weekend!
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Real Betis to beat Celtic at 1.74 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRebCel
MATCH STATS
● This is the first ever European meeting between Real Betis and Celtic, and the Spanish side’s first ever game against Scottish opponents.
● Celtic have lost their last six major UEFA European matches against Spanish opposition by an aggregate score of 19-1 since they beat Barcelona 2-1 in November 2012 in the Champions League despite enjoying just 16% possession in that game.
● This is Real Betis’ first European campaign since 2018-19, when they competed in the UEFA Europa League and were eliminated in the last 32 by Rennes. They have only ever lost one of their 12 previous group stage matches in the competition (W5 D6), a 1-0 defeat to Lyon in November 2013, while they have never conceded more than once in a group stage game, keeping eight clean sheets.
● In all European competition, Celtic have never won an away match against Spanish opponents in 18 attempts against seven different teams (D3 L15). Their last Spanish visit was a 1-0 loss to Valencia in the UEFA Europa League in February 2019.
● Celtic manager Ange Postecoglou is the first ever Australian to manage in the UEFA Europa League, while his opposite number Manuel Pellegrini is set to take charge of a Europa League match for the first time. However, the Chilean did manage Villarreal in the 2004-05 and 2007-08 UEFA Cup campaigns, losing just two of those 20 matches over the two seasons (W12 D6).
DINAMO ZAGREB V WEST HAM
5.45pm Next we have another very competitive game as Dinamo Zagreb host West Ham. I’m sure West Ham fans will be absolutely delighted to experience European football after so long. I must say though that they should be a little worried looking at their last two performances. They started the season on fire with xG figures of 3.15 v Newcastle and 2.57 v Leicester but then Crystal Palace created more than them in a 2-2 draw and they played out a pretty boring 0-0 draw with Southampton at the weekend. Those games would worry me, but overall the West Ham side is in pretty good shape. European football is a huge success for the club, and hopefully they can do well. They face a tough start here as Dinamo Zagreb made it to the Quarter Final last season.
There’s a couple of bets that interest me in this game. First, West Ham look a little short at around 2.3. They are a better side than Dinamo Zagreb, but this is always a tough place to come and win – I’d have West Ham bigger in the market thus making them a value lay. The other bet I like is under 2.5 goals at 1.97. I believe this is the best value bet on this game, I can’t see West Ham attacking too much and they also haven’t been creating a huge volume of chances in their last two games. I also expect Dinamo Zagreb to be very negative here – they are a rock solid team at the back in fairness to them, and with negative tactics expected here I expect a very quiet game. I’m surprised to see unders so big.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQDinWes
MATCH STATS
● Dinamo Zagreb and West Ham United have never faced previously in European competition. Zagreb have faced English opponents on 17 previous occasions in Europe (including qualifiers) and lost 11 of these games (W3 D3), though they beat Tottenham 3-0 in their most recent game against English opposition in last season’s Europa League.
● West Ham have only faced one Croatian opponent before, winning 6-1 on aggregate against NK Osijek in the UEFA Cup first round in September 1999.
● Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in their last 13 UEFA Europa League group stage matches (W9 D4), winning their last four in a row and only conceding once in their last eight such games.
● West Ham haven’t competed in major UEFA European competition (excluding qualifiers) since the 2006-07 UEFA Cup (losing 4-0 on aggregate to Palermo in the first round) and haven’t won any of their last four such games, all in the UEFA Cup between 1999 and 2006, failing to score in all four. The last side they did score against were Croatian opponents NK Osijek, winning 3-1 with goals from Paul Kitson, Neil Ruddock and Marc-Vivien Foe in 1999.
● West Ham manager David Moyes hasn’t managed in European competition since 2013-14 as Manchester United manager, leading them to the UEFA Champions League quarter-final before losing to Bayern Munich. In the UEFA Europa League, his last match came in February 2010 with Everton, losing 3-0 to Sporting Lisbon in the last 32 second leg, going out 4-2 on aggregate.
RANGERS V LYON
8pm Next we have one of the most open markets of the day as Rangers host Lyon. As I mentioned above, Rangers are the top side in Scotland now but they have also enjoyed some success in Europe lately. Unfortunately for them, they have already lost their unbeaten this season after going the whole domestic season unbeaten – but with Celtic off the pace it’s highly likely they will lift the title again. The acid test for Rangers will how they do in Europe, and the first job at hand is getting out of the Group. They actually have a reasonably weak Group this time around, and we also have the third place going into the Europa Conference League which is new this season.
Lyon finished in the top four in Ligue 1 last season, which was a nice bounce back after finishing 7th the season prior. Compared to the quality in the Scottish League that was probably tougher than winning so we should have a very even game here. Rangers actually had a host of goals in the European games this season with some very entertaining games! Over 2.5 goals is definitely very interesting at 1.75, and while I’m also interested in backing Rangers at 2.7 or bigger because Lyon have put in some poor performances already this season, I expect a very open game here looking at the Lyon xG figures. They’ve had plenty of goals too and with Rangers playing attacking football, everything lines up for overs here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRanLyo
MATCH STATS
● Rangers and Lyon have faced previously in the 2007-08 UEFA Champions League group stages – on both occasions, the away side won 3-0.
● Rangers won their first four home major UEFA European games against French opponents between 1956 and 1971 but are winless in their last eight such matches (D3 L5), though their last game was against Lyon in December 2007.
● Lyon have only lost one of their 18 UEFA Europa League group stage matches (W11 D6), losing 1-0 to Atalanta in what was their most recent group game in December 2017.
● Rangers have lost none of their last 10 UEFA Europa League group stage matches (W5 D5) since a 2-1 defeat to Young Boys in October 2019. They have never lost a group stage match in the competition at Ibrox (P9 W5 D4).
● Including qualifiers, Rangers have lost two of their last three home matches in European competition, one more than in their previous 23 at Ibrox (W16 D6).
LEICESTER V NAPOLI
8pm Last but not least we finish Thursday night with a cracker. Leicester host Napoli in what should be a ding dong battle. I actually don’t agree with the odds here – I expect a pretty open market and I’m surprised to see Leicester as short as 2.24. Napoli are an excellent side, and we know that from their Serie A form, and English football fans will remember their games with Liverpool in the Champions League. They were the unfortunate side to miss out on Champions League football on the final day in Serie A last season – dropping out by one point with a totally unexpected draw on the final day. A win would have saw them finished second! It was a classic final day full of drama, and Napoli were the unlucky side – although unlucky is the wrong word to use – they should have beaten Verona, they started the game close to 1.2!
That’s why I’m surprised to see Leicester at 2.24 here. Napoli even beat Juventus at the weekend, winning 2-1 and creating an xG of 2.10. They have started Serie A in great form, and the same can’t be said about Leicester. I’m happy to ignore the loss to Man City at the weekend as that was to be expected, but they were hammered as City finished the game with an xG of 3.02. They haven’t been playing well at the start of the season, for example they were very lucky to beat Wolves, conceding an xG of 1.66 and creating 0.55 in their 1-0 win and they beat Norwich 2-1 but it was a very even game and Norwich even created a bigger xG. Of all the prices today, I feel Leicester is the most off and I’m happy to have my first Max Bet lay of the season.
The Ultra Says:
Five points lay (liability) Leicester to beat Napoli at 2.24 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeiNap
MATCH STATS
● This is Leicester City’s first ever match against Napoli in European competition and their first ever competitive match against an Italian side.
● Napoli are set to face an English side for the 21st time in European competition, with Leicester the seventh different English team they’ve faced, after Arsenal, Burnley, Chelsea, Leeds, Liverpool and Man City. Napoli have never won an away European game against English opponents in 10 previous attempts (D2 L8).
● Leicester have only lost two of their 13 home matches in UEFA European competition (W8 D3) though one of those was their most recent game at the King Power against Slavia Prague in February, losing 2-0, a result that saw the Foxes eliminated from the UEFA Europa League in the last 32.
● Napoli have only lost one of their last 15 UEFA Europa League group stage matches (W11 D3), a 1-0 home defeat to AZ on MD1 of last season’s competition.
● In all major European competition (European Cup/Champions League, UEFA Cup/Europa League, Cup Winners’ Cup & Fairs Cup), Napoli are one of only four teams to play 10+ away games in England without winning (10 games), after RSC Anderlecht (17), Dynamo Kiev (15) and Club Brugge (12).
