EUROPA LEAGUE THURSDAY: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Thursday’s Europa League games between BRONDBY v RANGERS, GENK v WEST HAM, LEICESTER v SPARTAK MOSCOW and FERENCVAROSI v CELTIC all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRONDBY V RANGERS
5.45pm We have a fascinating night in the Europa League on Thursday with plenty of sides in crunch fixtures. It’s going to be an interesting night on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start early in Group A with Brondby hosting Rangers. It’s been a poor start to this Group for Rangers compared to their performances over the last two seasons, but a win here and a loss for Sparta Prague against Lyon would put them into second place. Rangers easily beat Brondby 2-0 when they had home advantage a couple of weeks ago, so this is an excellent chance to them to claim another three points after losing their opening two games. Lyon are heavy odds on favourites to beat Sparta Prague this evening too, so you don’t need me to tell you what an important game this is for Rangers! When you consider that Sparta Prague will likely beat Brondby with home advantage and that Rangers still have to play Lyon, this is a must win game.
Rangers are a good bet here at 1.94 in my opinion. Brondby have created next to nothing so far in the Europa League this season – their xG figures read 0.31 v Sprata Prague, 0.27 v Lyon and 0.97 v Rangers. It’s a little worrying their highest figure came against Rangers, but Rangers bossed the game and created an xG of 2.24. They were always comfortable and although Brondby will be a little stronger with home advantage, Rangers should get the job done. I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably low however as it’s clear looking at the Scottish league that Rangers haven’t been as good this season as they were last season, but never the less there’s a little gulf in class here and Rangers should win. 1.94 is about ten ticks too big for me.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Rangers to beat Brondby at 1.94 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBroRan
MATCH STATS
● Brøndby most recently hosted Scottish opposition in Europe back in July 2016, losing 1-0 at home to Hibernian in a UEFA Europa League qualifying match.
● Rangers have won eight of their nine matches against Danish sides in all European competitions (D1), winning at least once against each of the five sides they have faced from Denmark.
● Brøndby are winless in four home matches in the main stages of European competitions (D3 L1) since beating Maccabi Petah Tikva in the UEFA Cup in November 2005.
● Rangers haven’t scored in either of their last two away games in all European competition, last going three away games without a goal in Europe in November 2010 while participating in the UEFA Champions League.
● Brøndby IF remain the only side without a goal in this season’s UEFA Europa League campaign, despite registering 16 attempts on goal.
GENK V WEST HAM
5.45pm Next we have West Ham traveling to take on Genk in Group H and The Hammers are seal the deal this evening. They are currently top of the Group with three wins from three games, and they’ll want to win here to be able to rest players coming up to the busy Christmas and New Year period. Plus if they top the Group they will avoid the teams coming from the Champions League and go into the Last 16. After a few slightly sub-par performances, West Ham are flying again. They are currently sitting in the top four in the Premier League and with Manchester United, Arsenal and Spurs having a number of issues this season, their fans can dream of Champions League football again. Even just to challenge is an incredible achievement to be fair. They recorded another impressive win at the weekend, putting Aston Villa to the sword in a dominant 4-1 win.
They managed to beat Genk 3-0 when they had home advantage a couple of weeks ago, but it wasn’t without stress. They actually conceded an xG of 1.72 and they were pretty lucky not to concede a goal. There is a big gulf in class here, but this best way to describe this fixture is a “tricky European away tie” for West Ham. They should win, but it won’t be easy. Of course, it all comes down to the odds and for me West Ham are worth having a small investment on at 2.06. I would have them marginally odds on to beat an average side like Genk. The Hammers come here full of confidence after knocking Man City out of the Carabao Cup last weekend and then the win over Villa at the weekend, it’s an ideal time to back West Ham at good prices against average sides.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Genk at 2.06 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQGenWes
MATCH STATS
● This will be only West Ham’s second trip to Belgium in all European competition after a 1-0 win over KAA Gent back in September 1964 in the Cup Winners’ Cup first round, with Ron Boyce scoring the winner.
● Genk have conceded more goals via set-pieces than any other side in the UEFA Europa League this season (4), with two of those coming at the London Stadium in the reverse fixture on MD3.
● Genk have lost their last four home matches in all European competition – it’s already their longest ever losing run at home in Europe.
● West Ham beat Dinamo Zagreb on the road on MD1 and are looking to win consecutive away games in European competition for the first time since September 1999 (three games).
● This will be West Ham manager David Moyes’ 1000th match as a manager in all competitions. It will be the 40th to take place in European competition, winning 22 of those matches to date (D6 L11).
LEICESTER V SPARTAK MOSCOW
8pm We move to the 8pm games next and we have a fascinating situation in Group C. Leicester currently sit in third, one point ahead of Spartak Moscow and level on points with Napoli while being two points behind Legia Warsaw. Fair to say everything is to play for! Looking at the Group situation, this is a must win game for Leicester – they can’t afford a slip up with home advantage against Spartak Moscow. It will be very interesting to see what kind of side Brandan Rodgers names here actually, because in the past he has opted to rest some of his stars. That’s fine in the Europa Conference League, but I’d be disappointed if he chose to rest players for this game. They could easily still get straight into the Last 16, and they aren’t going to challenge for Champions League football this season after their slow start.
These two played out an incredibly entertaining game a couple of weeks ago when Leicester won 4-3. You can get 15.0+ on over 6.5 goals if you fancy more of the same! Leicester had a very poor start to the season this year, but they have turned things around since beating Manchester United 4-2. On paper, it might look like a disappointing result at the weekend with a 2-0 loss against Arsenal, but they were actually incredibly unlucky to lose. They created an xG of 2.10 and conceded just 0.93. It was just one of those games! However, while I feel Leicester will win here, the 1.31 looks very short. This will be an open game – you only have to look at the Spartak Moscow tactics and results to see they love an open game! We could see lots of goals if we see an early goal too, and over 2.5 goals can’t be ignored at 1.53.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeiSpa
MATCH STATS
● Leicester have never before played host to Russian opposition in any competition, with their 4-3 win over Spartak on MD3 the first time they’ve ever faced a side from Russia in their history.
● After winning on each of their first four trips to England in European competition between 1982 and 1995 (beating Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool & Blackburn), Spartak Moscow are since winless in their last six trips (D1 L5), most recently a 0-7 defeat to Liverpool in December 2017 – their heaviest ever loss in their European history.
● After returning to European competition in 2016-17, Leicester City won seven of their first eight home matches across the Champions League and Europa League, drawing the other – they have since failed to win either of their last two such home games, losing to Slavia Prague before drawing against Napoli.
● Spartak Moscow defeated Napoli on the road on MD2 and are looking to win consecutive away games in major European competition for the first time since a three-game run between December 2010 and March 2011.
● Patson Daka netted four times in the reverse fixture between these sides, becoming the first Leicester City player to do so in any game since Derek Hines against Aston Villa in November 1958. Indeed, he also became the club’s joint-top goalscorer in European competition in that game, moving level with Jamie Vardy, Harvey Barnes and Riyad Mahrez (4 each).
FERENCVAROSI V CELTIC
8pm We finish the evening with Celtic travelling to take on Ferencvarosi. This is one of the fixtures that kicked off at the unusual time of 3-30pm in the afternoon a couple of weeks ago, but thankfully we’re back to normal with this kick off time! Celtic have a very difficult Group this season with Bayer Leverkusen and Real Betis, they were always unlikely to get into the top two. Given the third place goes to the Europa Conference League this season, these games between Celtic and Ferencvarosi were always going to be important. I know a lot of sides have viewed the Europa Conference League in a dim light this season with their team selection, but for a side like Celtic it’s an excellent European competition to have available – especially when you can finish third and get into that after the Europa League.
After a slow start to the season, Celtic have finally started to win games in Scotland. They are four points behind Rangers at the top of the table, but I think they were only in fourth when these two sides last met! I had massive questions about Celtic going into that game, even with home advantage. I know on paper they are ahead of Ferencvarosi, but Ferencvarosi actually beat them recently in Champions League qualifying when Celtic had home advantage. Celtic hammered them a couple of weeks ago though, and they deserved to score more than two goals – they finished the game with an xG of 3.45 and I feel this game comes at a good time. It’s still a tough away tie however, so I’m happy to have a small bet at 2.3.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Celtic to beat Ferencvarosi at 2.3 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQFerCel
MATCH STATS
● Celtic will travel to Hungary for a major European encounter for only the fifth time, and for the first time since September 1988 – a 1-0 defeat to Budapest Honvéd. They’ve won only won on one of their previous four such trips (L3), beating Újpest 2-1 in March 1972 in the European Cup quarter-finals.
● Ferencvárosi have lost each of their last six matches in European competition, this after a five-game winning start to their European campaign back in July-August. This is their longest ever sequence of defeats in their history in Europe.
● Ferencvárosi have played four home matches in the UEFA Europa League to date and are still waiting for their first such victory (D2 L2).
● Celtic have lost each of their last three away games in the UEFA Europa League, conceding exactly four goals in each match. They have never lost four games in a row on the road in the competition.
● Celtic winger Jota has played a part in 25 open play sequences that have ended with a shot attempt, the most of any player in the UEFA Europa League this season.
