THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Thursday’s games between LYON v RANGERS, NAPOLI v LEICESTER, CELTIC v REAL BETIS and WEST HAM V DINAMO ZAGREB all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended stats.
LYON V RANGERS
5.45pm We have the final Matchday of the Europa League Group stages to enjoy on Thursday and we have some crunch matches on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start in Group A with Lyon hosting Rangers, and the good news for Rangers is they are already through to the preliminary knockout round after their 2-0 win over Sparta Prague on the last Matchday. That was an absolutely huge game for Rangers, as they were always unlikely to win away to Lyon so it was vital they won and sealed their place in the next round. That effectively leaves us with a meaningless game here though with Rangers unable to catch Lyon who have won all five of their games in the Group. That doesn’t make it less interesting from a betting point of view – as I have been saying this week in the Champions League, team selection makes the markets very interesting and we could see some big swings when the team news comes out for this game too.
At the time of writing, Lyon are trading around 1.98 which looks massive if they played a reasonably strong side. Lyon didn’t boss the game fully when they played in Scotland, but they were always going enough to win the game and Rangers have had some poor performances away from home in the Europa League this season. They lost 2-0 to Sparta Prague when creating an xG of only 0.35 and then they had to settle for a 1-1 draw at Brondby with an xG of 1.26. They kept things tight at the back but they are unlikely to be able to do that against Lyon. If you looked at the Ligue 1 table, you would feel Rangers have a decent chance here, but Rangers haven’t been at their best this season either and have lost their manager to the Premier League. As I said, we could see a big swing on the team news here but the value call for me is a small bet on Lyon at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Lyon to beat Rangers at 1.98 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLyoRan
MATCH STATS
● Lyon won 2-0 in the reverse fixture on MD1, earning them a second win from three matches against Rangers in European competition, also beating them in the previous matchup in the UEFA Champions League in December 2007.
● Rangers’ only previous visit to Lyon in European competition saw them defeat the French side 3-0 in the group stages of the UEFA Champions League in 2007-08, with goals from Lee McCulloch, Daniel Cousin and DaMarcus Beasley.
● Lyon are unbeaten in 10 home matches in European competition (W4 D6), winning their last three in a row. It’s their longest unbeaten home run in Europe since an 18-game run in the UEFA Champions League between September 2003 and December 2006 (W12 D6).
● Rangers are winless in five away games in European competition (D3 L2), with only eight goals being scored in total across those matches. They last went on a longer winless run on the road in Europe between May 2008 and July 2018 (14 games).
● Lyon forward Karl Toko Ekambi has been directly involved in more goals than any other player in the UEFA Europa League this season (8), scoring six times
NAPOLI V LEICESTER
5.45pm Next we move to Group C and we have a fascinating situation here! This is the most interesting Group heading into the final Matchday, all sides have a chance to finish top with only two points between them! Leicester are in the box seat as they top the Group with eight points, then Spartak Moscow and Napoli have seven and Legia Warsaw sit bottom of the Group with six points. The head-to-head record will easily be a factor here, and Napoli are in a poor position in that regard as they lost both their games to Spartak Moscow. Legia Warsaw have home advantage against Spartak Moscow and that game is hard to call with an open market, and to be honest a lot comes down to this game! At the start of the Group, you would have said Napoli and Leicester would have been the top two, but that’s unlikely to be the case with one of them missing out. In a nutshell, a draw won’t be good enough for Napoli here. If Spartak Moscow draw they are still ahead, if Legia Warsaw win and Napoli draw, they jump over Napoli.
Napoli are having an excellent season domestically, however they lost top spot in Serie A at the weekend with a loss to Atalanta at home. They could be a big blow to their confidence – AC Milan and Inter Milan both went past them and they have dropped a lot of points recently. The good news for Napoli fans is that Leicester have been playing poor football this season. They sit in the bottom half of the Premier League at the moment, albeit at the top of that, and they will going to miss out on European football next season. They just haven’t played good enough, and apart from a brief run of form that involved beating Manchester United they have just conceded too many chances and not created enough. They were poor away to Aston Villa at the weekend, and with home advantage Napoli should get the job done here. I have question marks about both sides however, so I’m, happy to keep stakes small.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Napoli to beat Leicester at 2.26 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNapLei
MATCH STATS
● The only previous meeting between these sides in European competition saw Napoli earn a point despite trailing by two goals with just over 20 minutes to go, courtesy of a brace from Victor Osimhen.
● Leicester have never previously faced Italian opposition away from home in European competition, while Napoli have won six of their 10 home matches against English sides in Europe (D2 L2), beating Liverpool 2-0 in their last such match in September 2019.
● After going on a run of nine wins from 10 home matches in the group stages of the UEFA Europa League between December 2010 and December 2015 (L1), Napoli have since won two of their last five such matches (D1 L2), though did they win their last home match on MD3 against Legia Warsaw.
● Leicester won their last away match in Europe, beating Spartak Moscow 4-3, with Patson Daka scoring all four goals. The Foxes have never won consecutive away games in European competition.
● Napoli have lost their final group game in just one of the five seasons they’ve entered the competition at that stage, losing at home to PSV in 2012-13 (P5 W3 D1 L1 on MD6 in total).
CELTIC V REAL BETIS
8pm Next we move to Group G and although this is essentially a meaningless fixture with Real Betis going to the knockout round playoff and Celtic transferring to the Europa Conference League, we do have an interesting market. I know Celtic are a much stronger side at home compared to away from home, but Real Betis look excellent value here at 2.42. Celtic have definitely gone a backwards in recent times, and Rangers have took over as the top side in Scotland. They have been poor in Europe too, and we have landed some nice Max Bets against them this season. They will be pleased to beat Ferencvaros though, and as I said in the last Matchday the Europa Conference League is actually a superb thing for Celtic going forward. We had a very entertaining game between the sides in Spain, with Real Betis winning 4-3 in the end! We’ll be in for a treat in we have a similar game here.
Real Betis are having a fantastic season in La Liga, they come into this game sitting in third – one point ahead of Atletico Madrid having played one more game. They are one point off Sevilla in second, and nine points behind Real Madrid at the top. I know the top sides in La Liga haven’t been at their best this season, but with Barcelona’s level dropping so much a side like Real Betis could sneak into the top four this season. The fans can dream at least! Real Betis highlighted this by grinding out a 1-0 win away to Barcelona at the weekend, and they have put a decent run of wins together since losing to Sevilla. For me there’s a huge gulf in class here and I feel the 2.42 is just too big to ignore on Real Betis. I am worried about team selection and this game being for just pride, so it won’t be a Max Bet – three points feels right.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Betis to beat Celtic at 2.42 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCelBet
MATCH STATS
● Real Betis’ 4-3 victory against Celtic on MD1 is the only previous meeting between these sides in European competition. It’s one of nine occasions in which Real Betis have conceded 3+ goals in a single match in Europe, but the only time they’ve won (D1 L7).
● Celtic have lost each of their last seven matches against Spanish opposition in Europe since defeating Barcelona 2-1 in the UEFA Champions League in November 2012.
● Celtic defeated Ferencvaros 2-0 in their last home match in European competition on MD3, ending a run of seven home matches in the competition without a clean sheet (18 goals conceded). They haven’t kept consecutive home clean sheets in a single season in major European competition since 2006-07, when they recorded four consecutive shut-outs in the UEFA Champions League.
● Real Betis lost their last away match in Europe against Bayer Leverkusen on MD4 – they haven’t lost consecutive games on the road in European competition since 1998, when they lost against Chelsea in March and Vejle BK in September.
● Only Bayer Leverkusen (11) have generated more shots following high turnovers (sequences beginning within 40+ metres of the opposition goal) than Celtic in the UEFA Europa League this season (10). Ange Postecoglou’s side are one of only four teams to have made 50+ high turnovers overall this term.
WEST HAM V DINAMO ZAGREB
8pm We finish the evening in Group H with West Ham hosting Dinamo Zagreb. West Ham are certain of finishing in top spot and they have been fantastic this season. That was highlighted at the weekend with a massive 3-2 win over Chelsea. That was definitely a big setback for Chelsea as they were overtaken by Manchester City and Liverpool at the top of the Premier League but it was also massive for West Ham to stay in the Top Four. With Manchester United, Spurs and Arsenal having so many issues at the moment, there’s definitely a spot open in fourth and you can’t say they aren’t in the mix. It’s incredible what a good job David Moyes has done at the club when you reflect on it – he came in to keep them in the Premier League at the time and half the fans weren’t happy because he was deemed to be a joke after what happened at Manchester United. As someone joked, if he didn’t have the United job already, he would be the favourite to take over!
Dinamo Zagreb come into this game sitting in second, and they are two points ahead of Genk in third. A draw would be enough here for Dinamo given their head-to-head record with Genk, and even if they lose they get to transfer to the Europa Conference League; although they clearly won’t be the aim. With a draw in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them approach this game very negatively. It will be interesting to see what kind of side David Moyes names here – obviously being in the top four race is so important and they have nothing to gain here. West Ham won 2-0 when the sides met earlier in the Group and I feel we’ll see under 2.5 goals again here. That looks over priced at 2.1 considering the likely tactics from Dinamo, and possibly some changes to the West Ham XI.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWesDin
MATCH STATS
● West Ham’s 2-0 victory in Croatia on MD1 in the reverse fixture is the only previous meeting between these sides in European competition. Dinamo Zagreb recorded an expected goals figure of only 0.4 at home.
● Dinamo Zagreb have never won away to English opponents in Europe, with this set to be their 10th attempt (previously D2 L7). Zagreb have lost all five of their away games against London clubs (Arsenal x2, Spurs x2, Fulham x1).
● West Ham have won 19 of their 27 home matches in European competition (D3 L5), boasting a 70% win rate. The Hammers could win three home matches in a single European campaign for the third time (three in 1964-65, four in 1975-76).
● Dinamo Zagreb have lost three of their last four away matches in the UEFA Europa League (W1), a run that started in March of this year against Tottenham Hotspur.
● No player has provided more assists (3) than West Ham’s Aaron Cresswell in the UEFA Europa League this season, while he is also the only player with multiple assists directly from set plays (2).
