THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews the start of the knockout phase in the Europa League with BARCELONA v MANCHESTER UNITED and JUVENTUS v NANTES both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V MANCHESTER UNITED
5.45pm It’s the knockout stage of the Europa League on Thursday, and we have some huge fixtures to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! The eyes of the football world will tune in for Barcelona v Manchester United; this was always going to be a highlight fixture the minute the draw was made. Both clubs are having fantastic seasons, and although Barcelona have been playing better football than United this season, ten Hag has this United side full of confidence and they won’t come here playing with fear. The United boss decided to rest some players in the Premier League at the weekend in their win over Leeds, he obviously had one eye on this fixture, but he must also know United will have to be perfect to beat this Barcelona side. United would be very happy with a draw here, and get back to Old Trafford to see what happens in the second leg. How ten Hag sets up his United side here will be fascinating, Barcelona are creating an average xG of 2.4 in La Liga this season. Not only have they been excellent going forward, but they have been rock solid at the back too – their average xG conceded is only 0.9. United can’t really touch those stats, but they are playing good football – they are creating an average xG of 1.6 per game in the Premier League, and they seem to be coming back to themselves after being so poor for years.
Despite United being in great form domestically, they have a huge task on their hands here. Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are currently trading 1.81 at the time of writing, with United 4.7 and the draw is 3.95. The market is also expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.82 – not heavily expecting goals and the fact that this is a first leg, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Overs at odds on. While United beat Leeds 2-0 at the weekend, they finished the game very strongly but Leeds were on top for a large part of the game, and probably should have been leading at half-time too. If United defend like that here, Barcelona will punish them. That has to be a major worry, and I couldn’t put anyone off Barcelona at 1.81. I’m happy to take a chance on Under 2.5 goals though at 2.13. I was surprised to see this trading so big when I clicked into the market, although we have a huge amount of attacking talent on show, we do have that element of this being a first leg and neither side will go all out. I can see a very cagey first half, and then the game opening up a little from there but we can get to half-time at 0-0, and be in a nice position on Unders.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.13 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarMun
JUVENTUS V NANTES
8pm We have four games kicking off at 8pm, and Juventus v Nantes looks the most interesting. Juventus have been having a terrible season so far – not only did they crash out of the Champions League but they got slapped with a 15 point deduction in Serie A. That moved them down from sitting in the top four to mid-table, and their chances of being involved in European football next season are slim at the moment, ten points away from sixth place. They do have a reasonable chance of going very deep in this tournament however, maybe even winning it. They won’t be unhappy with the draw against Nantes and they will be fully expected to win here. They are trading 1.42 at the time of writing, and although you could say Juventus haven’t been playing their best football this season, it’s hard to see past them winning here. I say they haven’t been playing their best football because they are only creating an average xG of 1.5 in Serie A this season which isn’t high for a top four club (before the points deduction!) they have been grinding out a lot of results this season rather than blowing teams away, which is to their credit – it’s important to find a win when not at your best too! Nantes are sitting down in 13th in Ligue 1, and there really is a big gulf in class between the sides here.
As I said above, it’s hard to see past a home win here but I’m going to look around the side markets for some value. I couldn’t put anyone off Juventus at 1.42, especially putting them in any Acca today, but I do like Both Teams Not To Score at 1.71. Nantes like to try and keep games as tight as possible, and with this being a first leg I fully expect them to put XI men behind the ball here. A draw for them would be a fantastic result, and they will play like that. I can see Juventus having a lot of the ball and controlling the game. Nantes are only creating an average xG of 1.1 this season in Ligue 1, so they don’t offer much going forward at all. Couple this with the fact that Juventus are only conceding an average xG of 1.0 this season and I would be surprised to see Nantes find the net here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvNan
