THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews the quarter final second legs between ROMA v FEYENOORD and SEVILLA v MANCHESTER UNITED both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V FEYENOORD
8pm We have a huge night in the Europa League on Betdaq Betting Exchange this Thursday! Every game seems to be perfectly set-up, but I’m sure the two Quarter-Finals involving Roma and Manchester United will have most football fans focus. It’s a shame the games kick off at the same time because I’d like to enjoy them on their own, but we start the evening with Roma hosting Feyenoord 1-0 down after the first leg. Jose Mourinho’s side were unlucky to lose the first leg as they finished the game with an xG figure of over double what they conceded, but they have all the work to do here. They recorded an impressive 3-0 win over Udinese here at the weekend, and with AC Milan and Inter Milan both dropped points again they have put themselves in a strong position for a top four finish in Serie A now. It’s looking likely they’ll have Champions League football next season. Although Roma would have started this tie as favourites to get through, it was always going to be a tricky first leg, and you’d have to say now Feyenoord become the favourites. Roma have created enough to bounce back though, but they will very likely have to keep a clean sheet as well. That’s going to be difficult against the side sitting eight points clear at the top of the Dutch Eredivisie.
Roma come into the game as the odds on favourites in the match odds market. At the time of writing they are currently trading 1.9, with Feyenoord 4.7 and the draw is 3.75. Obviously the Dutch Eredivisie is at a lower standard than Serie A, but you can’t knock Feyenoord domestically this season. They have been superb – they average an xG of 2.0 going forward and only concede 0.9. Roma have pretty similar stats, their average xG is 1.7 and they concede an average of 0.8 which is very impressive in a league like Serie A. As I said above, they were the better side in the first leg and they were unlucky to lose. At the same time, I don’t think I’d have them as short as 1.9 here – Feyenoord are an impressive side and I expect them to make the game closer than those odds suggest. I expect a very cagey game here though – Feyenoord are going to sit back given they have a lead to protect and we can see from the stats that Roma have been rock solid at the back. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.75 and I marginally prefer that bet over the Roma lay at 1.9.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomFyn
SEVILLA V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm We have a fascinating Quarter-Final in Seville next as Sevilla host Manchester United after a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford. You have to say United absolutely threw away this tie in the final ten minutes of the first leg. They were 2-0 up at half-time and bossing the game, they should have put the tie to bed. Now they face a tricky situation, when they could have had a three or four goal lead plus rested players. Sevilla have been having a terrible season in La Liga, so United will still be expected to progress but they have made the task for more difficult than it should have been. They aren’t odds on to win in 90 minutes, at the time of writing they are currently trading 2.18 with Sevilla 3.6 and the draw is 3.7. Both sides recorded 2-0 wins domestically at the weekend with Sevilla beating Valencia and Manchester United beating Nottingham Forest. Both of those sides are sitting in the bottom three of La Liga and the Premier League, so were pretty much to be expected. That being said, Sevilla have hung around the relegation battle in La Liga for far too long this season. In biggest problem for Sevilla this season has been at the back – they have conceded an average xG of 1.7 and at times they have been all over the place. They have lost their usual solidness, and they haven’t been creating that many chances either. While United did lead the tie 2-0 at the break, they didn’t finish the game with an excessively high xG – that was probably down to subs from ten Hag and trying to give players a break in a hectic schedule.
Despite the disappointment of the first leg, United come into this tie in excellent form. They have been creating a huge amount of chances in the Premier League recently. That being said, they have only played Everton and Nottingham Forest so let’s not get carried away here, but their last two xG figures have been 3.67 and 3.41. Those are very high figures, especially for a United side who have struggled to create chances over a number of years. You can clearly see the improvement ten Hag has brought to the club. With United creating so much, and Sevilla conceding so much, it’s hard to see past United here at 2.18. I would have them a couple of ticks closer to 2.0 as they have been much better than Sevilla over the course of the season. I’m not going to get carried away with the stakes here however, at the end of the day Sevilla are still a top club, and although they are having a terrible season it won’t be a cakewalk for United. Two points feels the right bet, the 2.18 offers some nice value.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Sevilla at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevMun
