THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews FREIBURG v WEST HAM, MARSEILLE v BRIGHTON and LIVERPOOL v UNION SAINT-GILLOISE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FREIBURG V WEST HAM
5.45pm The Europa League action continues on Thursday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We had a big shock on the opening week when Brighton lost AEK Athens, while West Ham and Liverpool also conceded on their way to winning. On paper, it looked like this would be a very easy Group stage for the Premier League sides. They should all still come through easily to be honest, but there might be more drama than expected. West Ham actually have a tricky away tie here against Freiburg as we start the evening in Group A. Both these sides got off to winning starts in matchday one, and you’d expect them to take up the top two spots. We have an exceptionally open betting heat here; it’s actually one of the most open betting heats in the Europa League this week! There’s only three ticks between sides at the time of writing with Freiburg marginal favourites. They are trading 2.66 with West Ham at 2.69 and the draw is 3.75. On paper, West Ham have got off to a brilliant start in the Premier League but there are worries looking at their under-lining numbers.
The Hammers are conceding an average xG of 2.02 this season which is obviously very high. Only one other side is conceding an average xG of over 2.0 in the Premier League! They have had success going forward, but if they don’t fix their issues at the back they won’t have much success this season – eventually sides will start taking their chances! Freiburg like to play a very open game, and their under-lining figures back that up too. Their average xG created is 1.42 and their average conceded is 1.5. They are in the same range as last season, but they created more with an average of 1.63 which was actually the fourth best figure in the Bundesliga last season. They are very strong at home – finish fifth in the Bundesliga home table last season and it will be tough for West Ham to get a win here in my opinion. With their issues at the back, I like the West Ham lay at 2.69. I still feel that this will be a very close game, but personally I would have the home win a little shorter and West Ham just a little bigger in the market.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) West Ham to beat Freiburg at 2.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FreWhu
MARSEILLE V BRIGHTON
5.45pm We move to Group B next and Brighton are on the backfoot in this Group after losing their opening game against AEK Athens. They were trading in the 1.2’s before kick off there so it was a big shock to lose with home advantage – definitely a major buzz kill in their first Europa League game too! They travel to take on Marseille now, and this will be a tricky fixture for them. They could find themselves in a poor position after this game, although Ajax are having major issues in Holland this season you would still expect them to come through this Group so it will be one of these two to join them – although you never know Ajax might drop out given all their problems, their fans were even breaking up the stadium already this season! We have another open market here – Brighton are favourites at 2.4 with Marseille 2.9 and the draw is 3.95. Brighton were shocked by Aston Villa at the weekend, losing 6-1! Not many football fans would have saw that coming after the strong start Brighton made this season – they had totally outplayed Manchester United at Old Trafford and sat in the top four.
A bounce back win the Europa League would be a nice way to comeback, and they face a Marseille side here out of form in Ligue 1. They sit in the bottom half of the table with just nine points from seven games. They have had to play Monaco and PSG in their last two games, but they lost both of them and could only draw with Nantes and Toulouse previously. Their under-lining numbers aren’t too bad however – they are creating an average xG of 1.7 which is the fourth best in Ligue 1 at the moment. Brighton are creating an average xG of 1.91 in the Premier League which is very impressive – obviously they got thrashed at the weekend and only created an xG of just over 1.0 to bring their average down, but overall they are still performing to a high level. I feel this game just screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.6. Brighton being away from home helps because they seemingly don’t stop attacking, and Marseille will fight fire with fire – we should have goals here!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MarBri
LIVERPOOL V UNION SAINT-GILLOISE
8pm We finish the evening in Group E as Liverpool host Union Saint-Gilloise. Most football fans will be expecting Liverpool to win here, and they are trading at one of the shortest prices in the Europa League this week. They are 1.22 at the time of writing – only Roma at home to Servette are trading in the same range this week. If you fancy a shock, Union Saint-Gilloise are trading 14.0 with the draw at 7.6. Liverpool have been involved in one of the biggest dramas of the season so far in the Premier League with VAR at the weekend. In fairness, VAR came out and held their hands up through PGMOL. The reality is they can’t change the result now, it was human error within the system and perhaps another game will be the best thing to move on from. It’s a crippling blow in such a big game for it to happen, VAR was brought in to avoid these mistakes! They should get back to winning ways here, and it will be interesting to see what XI Klopp decides to name here – we could see a few changes with the gulf in class between the sides.
While Liverpool recorded a 3-1 win in their opening Europa League game, they did go behind early and stay 1-0 down until the second half. They have been conceding plenty of sloppy goals, and we all know they like to play an open game too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Union Saint-Gilloise get on the score sheet at some stage, but it’s very hard to see past a comfortable Liverpool win over the 90 minutes. Union Saint-Gilloise are top of the Belgian Pro League at the moment, but they have only won six of their nine games. We don’t have much data from the Belgian Pro League but it goes without saying there’s a monster gap in class here. I feel it’s a case of how many can Liverpool score, and Over 2.5 goals is a tempting bet at 1.41. I expected it to be trading a little shorter to be honest, and as I said above I wouldn’t be surprised if Union Saint-Gilloise scored at some stage too. I’m happy to keep stakes very small here, but Overs looks the call.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.41 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivUni
