THURSDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FEYENOORD v ROMA and AC MILAN v RENNES both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FEYENOORD V ROMA
5.45pm It’s time for the Knockout Round playoffs in the Europa League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Thursday! As we know, this round is the second placed sides against the sides who finished third in the Champions League. It’s nice to have fixtures at 5.45pm and 8pm to enjoy unlike the Champions League fixtures this week, and we kick off the action with Feyenoord hosting Roma. These two have history recently with Jose Mourinho massively clashing with Feyenoord and really getting under their skin. Obviously he has moved on, but this could still be a feisty affair. Roma will be gutted to be here in fairness – they should have really topped their Europa League Group, the other three sides were Slavia Prague, Servette and Sheriff Tiraspol. Feyenoord ended up in a Champions League Group with Atletico Madrid and Lazio so that was obviously tough, and it’s not like they are the best side in the Netherlands either. It’s fair to say that this was a bad draw for both sides though as they both could have progressed well into this competition. Feyenoord come into the game as the favourites at 2.04 with Roma 4.1 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing.
Roma had put three wins together since sacking Jose Mourinho, but their winning run came to an end at the weekend with a 4-2 loss against Inter Milan, who are running away with the Serie A title now in fairness. Roma haven’t conceded that many goals in Serie A this season so shipping four goals is white rare, where they have struggled however is creating chances. I would expect them to play for a draw here and get back to Rome with a result. Feyenoord beat Lazio and Celtic here, but lost to Atletico Madrid. They are ten points off PSV at the top of the Eredivisie. They did win 1-0 here last season before losing 4-1 away from home; I would expect a very similar cagey game here and then things to open up in the second leg. It’s hard to make the case that Feyenoord should be odds on, and I don’t see much value in the 2.04. I like Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 and was very surprised to see it trading so high when I clicked into the market. Roma have been very solid at the back this season; their average xG conceded is 1.14 which is the third best defensive figure in Serie A. I just see a classic cagey first leg tie here, and the 1.94 on Unders looks too big to ignore.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FynRom
AC MILAN V RENNES
8pm AC Milan v Rennes looks the highlight of the 8pm games, and everyone will be expecting the Italian side to progress here. They were involved in the best Group of the Champions League involving PSG, Dortmund and Newcastle. Obviously we had plenty of drama in that Group, and everything went right down to the wire. Rennes finished one point behind Villarreal in their Europa League Group; probably a little disappointed with that considering how poor Villarreal have been since Unai Emery left. They aren’t in a relegation battle, but they are closer to that compared to the European spots! Rennes are sitting in seventh in Ligue 1 which is obviously a pretty average level – take out PSG and you have a very weak league. They have been on a winning run however, so I suppose they can come into this game with that confidence behind them. AC Milan are the odds on favourites however, the home win is trading 1.72 with Rennes 5.5 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Rennes have an xG performance level pretty much in line with where they are in the table. They create more chances than they concede, but obviously there’s a big difference between the level in Serie A and Ligue 1, in my opinion.
I was surprised to see AC Milan trading as high as 1.72 when I clicked into the market to be honest. AC Milan are having a good season sitting in third in Serie A, and they have definitely improved as the season has gone on too. Their performance levels were a little low towards the start of the season but they kept grinding out results. Now they have increased their average xG created – there’s a chance they could catch Juventus for second now too. On bare figures, both sides have a very similar level but the major difference is the leagues. It takes a lot more quality to have an average xG created of close to 1.5 in Serie A compared to Ligue 1. Rennes look there for the taking, and with home advantage the 1.72 is too big on AC Milan. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a quiet game here; it is a first leg after all but the market has Over 2.5 goals odds on. I wouldn’t put anyone off a bet on Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 but the best value here is the AC Milan win in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan to beat Rennes at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmRen
