EUROPA LEAGUE PREVIEW: The Ultra previews ROMA v BRIGHTON, SPARTA PRAGUE v LIVERPOOL and FREIBURG v WEST HAM all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V BRIGHTON
5.45pm We kick off the Europa League Last 16 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! We have three Premier League clubs in action, and three interesting markets too. We kick it off with Roma hosting Brighton which is my highlight fixture of the round but we do have plenty of interesting ties. Roma come into the game as the favourites at 2.2 with Brighton 3.4 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Roma have been on a very good run since sacking Jose Mourinho; they’ve won six of their seven Serie A games, the only loss coming against Inter Milan who are running away with the title. Roma really struggled to create chances under Mourinho this season, their average xG created was towards the bottom of the table but since he was sacked they have been scoring goals and creating chances for fun. They are definitely playing with more freedom. I have to say I didn’t see any signs of Mourinho losing the dressing room, the fans were definitely sad he was sacked and some of the players too – however you have to say that this is a huge new manager bounce and they look like a completely different side. Brighton face a huge task here, especially as they have been struggling to win games in the Premier League.
Brighton had another loss at the weekend, a rather embarrassing 3-0 loss to Fulham. They’ve only had three wins in their last 12 Premier League games – considering their average xG created is as high as 1.72 that record simply isn’t good enough. Of course, they are conceding a lot of chances away from home and that has been a problem. They’ve only kept three clean sheets in the Premier League all season, and now they bump into a Roma side playing their best football of the season – talk about poor timing! I feel Brighton will be delighted with a draw here and take their chances back in England – although that would be a good result for them I can’t see them setting up negatively. That’s just not Brighton; they will play their usual open game and we should see plenty of action. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.83 which is an appealing bet, however I prefer Roma at 2.2 with home advantage. Brighton have struggled away from home this season, they only have one win from their last eight away Premier League games and that was against Sheffield United who are nailed to the bottom of the table. This fixture falls at a good time for Roma and the 2.2 is worth backing.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Roma to beat Brighton at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomBri
SPARTA PRAGUE V LIVERPOOL
5.45pm Next we have a very interesting tie as Sparta Prague host Liverpool. I have to say I was surprised when I clicked into the market here to see Liverpool trading as big as 1.96 with Sparta Prague 3.95 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. I know Jurgen Klopp has a huge injury list at the moment but the 1.96 still feels very big on Liverpool here. Sparta Prague had to come through the playoff round against Galatasaray, they lost the first leg but then won 4-1 here. Obviously this is a difficult place to come, but Liverpool are tournament favourites for a reason and there is a gulf in class between the sides. Sparta Prague were second to Rangers at the Group stage, and they had to settle for a 0-0 draw here against Rangers and beat Real Betis 1-0 too. They are strong at home, and perhaps Liverpool will be happy with a draw here and get back to Anfield for the second leg but I would still have Klopp’s men shorter than 1.9 here. They got the job done at the weekend in dramatic fashion away to Nottingham Forest – they had to wait until the 99th minute for a winner!
There’s a fair chance that we get a bigger price on Liverpool in-running, but from an outright point of view I like the 1.96. Liverpool top the away table in the Premier League this season; they do have the same amount of points as Manchester City but their away form has been very solid. Their average xG created is 2.12 – in the best league in the world that is an exceptional figure. Sparta Prague currently top their domestic table, and they do have an average xG of over 2.0 at home this season but obviously we have to look at things from a gulf in class between the domestic leagues and sides. They have been solid at the back in this competition, but they’ve yet to face anyone close to being at the level of Liverpool. I’m going to keep stakes small here because Liverpool do have injury worries and you have to respect the home form of Sparta Prague but I still feel that the 1.96 is too big here and as I said above, I’d have Liverpool shorter than 1.9.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat Sparta Prague at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpaLiv
FREIBURG V WEST HAM
8pm We finish Thursday night with Freiburg hosting West Ham, and it’s definitely a sense of déjà vu here as these sides met in the Group stage! West Ham topped the Group and then Freiburg came through the knockout playoff after finish second. West Ham won the two meetings in the Group and they finished the away game with a marginally higher xG figure too. A draw was probably a fair result but the Hammers have grinded out plenty of wins this season. They do have some major issues looking at their Premier League xG figures and Freiburg will fancy their chances – after six games without a win David Moyes men have steadied the ship with wins over Brentford and Everton recently. We have an exceptionally open market, and Freiburg are the favourites with home advantage. The Bundesliga side are trading 2.64 with West Ham 2.84 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. Freiburg have been a mid-table Bundesliga side this season, and their xG figures are pretty poor too. Their average xG created is low at 1.2 and their average conceded is 1.48. That’s a very average performance level, but West Ham aren’t much better!
The Hammers have been massively over-performing in front of goal this season, and that’s why they sit as high as seventh in the Premier League table. Their average xG created is only 1.14 which is bottom six form but their actual goals scored average is 1.59. That’s a huge difference, especially when their average xG conceded is as high as 1.81. That’s the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season; only Sheffield United have been worse at the back, and we all know how bad they are! The reality is we have two average sides here, both of them concede more chances than they create and both have an average level of form. You do have to give West Ham credit for grinding out as many results as they have this season. We had a very close game when the sides met here at the Group stage, I know West Ham grinded it out to win 2-1 but there was nothing between them. The market is expecting a close game here but I still feel that the draw is value here at 3.5. I would perhaps have Freiburg a little higher in the betting, but I’m happy with a small bet on the draw in what should be a very close game – I can see both sides cancelling each other out.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FreWes
