THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews WEST HAM v FREIBURG, BRIGHTON v ROMA and LIVERPOOL v SPARTA PRAGUE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V FREIBURG
5.45pm We finish the Last 16 round in the Europa League on Thursday! West Ham, Brighton and Liverpool are all back in action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE but we have some very different situations! We kick the evening off with the most competitive tie as West Ham host Freiburg. Once again there was nothing between the sides in the first leg but Freiburg were able to grind out a 1-0 win; we had to wait until the 81st minute for the goal but then we had some incredible drama. West Ham were almost certain they were getting a penalty in injury time but after a long VAR check it wasn’t given. A draw would have been a fair result, it was an exceptionally close game – the finished with only 0.01 between the sides on xG – games don’t get much closer than that! With West Ham having home advantage now and one goal behind, it’s fair to say that the tie is perfectly set up. The Hammers come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.8 with Freiburg 5.0 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Freiburg are having a pretty average season in the Bundesliga this time around; they look like missing out on the European places at the moment. Despite that, there’s plenty of red flags with West Ham this season so I wouldn’t be lumping on 1.8.
West Ham have been over-performing in the Premier League this season. They have an average xG created of only 1.16 which is the sixth worst attacking figure in the Premier League but they have scoring from awkward angles as their actual goals scored average is 1.61. That makes them the fourth most over-performing side this season. They have had major issues at the back – their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.78 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. For that reason I wouldn’t take them at 1.8 here; I know Freiburg are an average side but they are going to get chances here. Freiburg have been conceding a lot of chances and goals in the Bundesliga this season, and I feel we’ll get plenty of action here. I know we only saw one goal in the first leg, but the xG suggested we should have had more. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.98 and that looks a very nice position – West Ham have to chase the game so that should open things up. I know Freiburg might be negative at the start but they haven’t been bombproof at the back either so we should see an open game.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuFre
BRIGHTON V ROMA
8pm Next we have Brighton hosting Roma, but this tie was put to bed in the first leg with Brighton all over the place and Roma winning 4-0. We landed a nice bet on Roma – I felt that game came at a great time for Roma given their run in Serie A and Brighton were struggling to win Premier League games, but I wasn’t expecting it to be as one sided as it ended up! For Roma, this game will just be about finishing off the job and trying to make the game as boring as possible. They don’t want the drama of being 2-0 down in the first leg – I would expect them to be very cagey to begin with. Brighton will have to chase the game, it’s a thankless task but they have to go for it – Brighton usually play an open game anyway. I know Roma are just here to get through, for example losing 1-0 wouldn’t be an issue, but I was still surprised to see Brighton trading odds on when I clicked into the market. The home win is trading 1.86 with Roma 4.2 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing.
Roma closed the gap on Bologna sitting in fourth at the weekend, but only by one point as they drew 2-2 with Fiorentina whole Bologna lost. In fairness it looked like Roma would be nowhere near the top four when Jose Mourinho was sacked but since then they have won six of their eight games with their only loss coming against Inter Milan. With other sides dropping points, Roma have put themselves in a great position. Obviously they have been playing a much more attacking game since Mourinho left, but their average xG conceded is only 1.21 in Serie A this season which is a good sign for this game. I know it’s in their interests to be very cagey, but Roma just haven’t been like that since Mourinho was sacked so we could easily have another very open game here. Brighton are just going to attack from the start anyway; Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.69 and that looks a nice position. Given Roma are so far ahead in the tie I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes but this game does suggest goals are coming!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriRom
LIVERPOOL V SPARTA PRAGUE
8pm We finish Thursday night with Liverpool hosting Sparta Prague. This is another tie that was put to bed in the first leg with Liverpool running out 5-1 winners. It was nice to land our bet on Liverpool, but much like the Roma bet I wasn’t expecting to be to 5-1! Sparta Prague has proven to be a tough place to go to, but not for Klopp’s men. Liverpool had a massive game in the Premier League at the weekend, they drew 1-1 with Manchester City here, and now Klopp is in a position where he could possible rest some players. I would definitely expect some changes, not wholesale changes because they still have to get the job done, but I would expect a weaker than usual Liverpool side. Despite the situation, Liverpool still come into the game as the red-hot favourites – they are trading as short as 1.34 at the time of writing with Sparta Prague 9.6 and the draw is 6.6. This is obviously a similar situation to the Brighton v Roma game above in the sense that Liverpool will want as little drama as possible here, but Liverpool very rarely play a negative and cagey game. Sparta Prague have to go for it; no point coming here to play for anything else.
I’d expect a reasonably open game. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.42 so the market is expecting goals too – I do feel we will see goals here, but it’s hard to make the case that the 1.42 offers massive value. I much prefer the Both Teams To Score option at 1.76. Liverpool have been much improved at the back this season, but at the same time they still concede plenty of chances – they are absolutely fantastic going forward but the major difference between Liverpool and Manchester City and Arsenal this season is that Liverpool have been more open at the back. Everything suggests that this is a game for small stakes; Liverpool have a huge lead, we can expect a few changes and the market is also expecting goals. With all the in mind I’m happy with a small bet on Both Teams To Score at 1.76. Sparta Prague have shown enough this season to suggest they can score at some stage.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivSpa
