THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews ROMA v ATHLETIC BILBAO and TOTTENHAM v QARABAG both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm The Europa League continues on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE and we have some cracking action on Thursday night. Spurs are in action as they host Qarabag, but we start the evening with the highlight of the night in my opinion as Roma host Athletic Bilbao. This should be a cracker; both sides play to a high level in their domestic leagues but they usually fall just short of getting into the Champions League. Athletic Bilbao have had quite possibly their best season ever in 2023/24, while Roma have been through a lot – they sacked Jose Mourinho last season but they’ve already been through another manager after they started this season without a win in four games. I know a lot is made about Jose Mourinho, but when he leaves clubs they rarely do much better. In Roma’s case, they were definitely over-performing their usual level while he was manager – he had a great connection with the fans and delivered a major European trophy. Obviously we all know that Mourinho can lose a dressing room and things can get quite toxic, but it’s hard to see Roma having a similar level of success without him than they had with him.
Roma come into the game as the favourites with home advantage – they are trading 2.12 with Athletic Bilbao 4.0 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. Obviously Roma have had a lacklustre start to the Serie A season, but they’ve sacked their managed and responded with a win at the weekend. Their under-lining numbers weren’t bad; maybe it was a bit of a trigger happy decision because their average xG created is the third best in Serie A at the moment. Athletic Bilbao are sitting third in La Liga after a very positive start – obviously they aren’t going to compete with Barcelona or Real Madrid – they have struggled to create good quality chances however looking at their xG figures. An average xG created of 1.12 is quite low, and a major worry here has to be their away performance level last season. Their average xG created away from home was only 1.15 last season compared to 1.7 at home, quite a difference. I feel this will be a very cagey game without many chances, and I can see Athletic Bilbao having quite a negative approach too, Under 2.5 goals looks a cracking value bet at 1.79 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomBil
TOTTENHAM V QARABAG
8pm Next we have Spurs starting their Europa League campaign by hosting Qarabag. Spurs have definitely had a lacklustre start to the Premier League season – they sit in tenth at the moment and have already lost the North London Derby. You can tell that Ange Postecoglou has been “touchy” in his press conferences and the UK media won’t give him a break to be honest. They’ve already got the “I usually win trophies in my second season” quote out of him, and that’s going to hang around all season. On paper, this seems like an ideal fixture to get an impressive win under their belt – anything bar a comfortable home win here would be a massive shock to be honest. Spurs are the red-hot favourites at 1.19 with Qarabag 19.0 and the draw is 9.2 at the time of writing. Although Spurs have only managed seven points from their five games in the Premier League, there are a lot of positive things about their play this season. Their average xG created is 1.83 which is the second best attacking figure in the Premier League at the moment – only Manchester City are creating more chances at the moment. Obviously they aren’t getting the results, but that is an impressive level of football and to be honest you wouldn’t want to change much!
The main worry with Spurs is that something “Spursy” is never far away, especially at the back. However, I can’t see past a comfortable home win here – obviously no prizes for tipping 1.19 shots but they are a side to include in any midweek acca in my opinion. I feel this game is about how many goals Spurs will score rather than will they win – there’s such a big gulf in class between the sides and as I highlighted above, Spurs are playing some very nice football. With the volume of chances they are creating, I feel they are rack up a nice score here – the market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.37 and it’s also expecting Spurs to do most of the work with Both Teams Not To Score trading odds on. I feel Spurs can cover the handicap here, and the -1.5 goals handicap at 1.49 looks a nice position in my opinion. That’s a confident bet for me.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Tottenham -1.5 goals to beat Qarabag at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotQar
