EUROPA LEAGUE THURSDAY: The Ultra previews LILLE v ASTON VILLA and NOTTINGHAM FOREST v MIDTJYLLAND both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LILLE V ASTON VILLA
5.45pm The Last 16 of the Europa League kicks off on Betdaq Betting Exchange on Thursday with two ties involving Premier League clubs as Lille host Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest host Midtjylland. We start the evening in France as Lille host Aston Villa; do we say Villa come into this tie under immense pressure?
They have been punching well above their weight under Unai Emery and dramatically over-performing their underlying numbers this season to be sitting in the top three in the Premier League. That over-performance was always going to regress, and boy has it caught up with them in the last few weeks. Back-to-back Premier League losses leaves them sitting in fourth now looking over their shoulder at Chelsea and Liverpool three points behind them. Their average xG created of 1.47 is a mid-table figure in the Premier League and their average xG conceded of 1.45 is equally mid-table, and the uncomfortable truth is that level is not the sort of figure that wins you Champions League spots. One wonders has the saga around Unai Emery – linked to Real Madrid since the Xabi Alonso sacking and general speculation about his future had a negative impact on the squad. It will be interesting to see can they see off Lille here – the gulf in class between the Premier League and Ligue 1 is massive.
We do have an open betting heat though – Aston Villa are the favourites at 2.52 with Lille 3.15 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Lille are a well-organised, hard-working side who are difficult to beat at home. We’ve seen in this Europa League campaign that they are no pushovers. They will be very well-drilled and will look to make life difficult for Villa in what should be a tight, cagey first leg. However, they are quite average in Ligue 1 – they sit in sixth coming into this tie. But they do have the third best attacking figure in Ligue 1 with an average xG created of 1.63, and they are also solid at the back with an average xG conceded of just 1.13 – only PSG have been better at the back. I can see why we have an open betting heat; Lille are playing decent football without getting the domestic results. You can see why we have an open betting heat – I’d actually have the market even more open. Villa aren’t in good form heading into this tie, and the 2.52 feels a little short. It’s not like Villa are a true Top Four side in the Premier League either looking at their performance levels, and I’m happy with a Villa lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Lille at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELLiAs
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V MIDTJYLLAND
8pm We finish Thursday night with an interesting betting heat as Nottingham Forest host Midtjylland! I joked this week that Spurs might become the first club to rest players in the Champions League to focus on staying up in the Premier League; Forest are actually in that position in the Europa League too! Forest have had more managerial drama than almost anyone in English football this season. Ironically, amongst all the carnage, they have a better attacking figure than last season. They massively over-performed last season to get European football, obviously expectations changed with the owner, and it has been a disaster this season really. We’re onto the fourth manager of the season, but Vitor Pereira came in and immediately produced one of the performances of the Europa League campaign with that stunning 3-0 win away against Fenerbahce. You could make a strong argument that Forest have been much better in Europe this season, but the reality is they’ve been playing decent football in the Premier League – they just haven’t been getting the results. Their average xG created of 1.48 is a mid-table figure in the Premier League – not even close to relegation standard. Forest come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.6 with Midtjylland 6.2 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing.
Midtjylland have been solid enough to get this far, but they will be well aware that they managed to come away with a win here towards the start of the season. Surely that will give them a massive confidence boost – for Nottingham Forest, that was two managers ago! The only thing to say about that result however was Forest were exceptionally unlucky. They finished the game with an xG of 2.48 compared to Midtjylland at 1.07. Obviously the gulf in class between the sides domestically is absolutely massive. I know Vitor Pereira has been quite emotional on the touchline – especially against Liverpool when a VAR decision went against them in the 97th minute. I don’t really like that look, but at the same time, Forest have almost been a different animal in Europe compared to their Premier League troubles. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but I’m happy to take the 1.6 on the home win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Nottingham Forest to beat Midtjylland at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELNoMi
