THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews BAYER LEVERKUSEN v WEST HAM and LIVERPOOL v ATALANTA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V WEST HAM
8pm The Europa League Quarter-Finals kick off on Thursday night on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, and we have some fantastic ties. Not quite as glamorous as what the Champions League Quarter-Finals have thrown at us, but we have some top class sides left in this competition. Liverpool remain the firm favourites to lift the trophy in Klopp’s final season, but we kick off Thursday night with Bayer Leverkusen hosting West Ham. Xabi Alonso has transformed this Bayer Leverkusen side, and speaking of Klopp’s situation at Liverpool – he could easily be his replacement come the summer! Leverkusen are currently racing away with the Bundesliga title – they now have a whopping 16 point advantage over Bayern Munich and the title race has been all over for a few weeks at this stage. That should allow Leverkusen to fully focus on this competition now, and they will be fully expected to progress past last year’s Europa Conference League winners. David Moyes has gone a wonderful job with West Ham, but there are a lot of red flags in their under-lining numbers and they might get exposed here. Although you have to give a lot of credit to West Ham, they are massively over-performing in the Premier League this season.
Bayer Leverkusen come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.48 with West Ham 7.4 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. It’s hard to fault Leverkusen; they haven’t lost in the Bundesliga all season and their performance levels are very impressive. Their average xG created is 2.05 and their average xG conceded is just 1.02 – that’s the best defensive figure in the Bundesliga and it’s been the main difference between them and Bayern Munich. It’s been a different story for West Ham in the Premier League however; they won again at the weekend and they sit up in seventh but as I said, their under-lining numbers scream red flags! Their average xG created is only 1.16 which is the sixth worst attacking figure in the Premier League, but they are massively over-performing that with an actual average of 1.63. They have been leaking a host of goals and chances too; their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.78 which is the second worst defensive record in the Premier League. Only Sheffield United have conceded more chances! We have a top class attacking side against a poor defensive side here, and I feel Leverkusen can cover the handicap. They are trading 2.27 -1.5 goals which looks cracking value in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayer Leverkusen -1.5 goals to beat West Ham at 2.27 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayWes
LIVERPOOL V ATALANTA
8pm Next we have the shortest price of the Quarter-Finals as Liverpool host Atalanta. Liverpool come into this game as the red-hot favourites at 1.35 with Atalanta 89.4 and the draw is 6.2 at the time of writing. That 1.35 is the shortest price of Thursday night, and you’d have to say that anything bar a comfortable home win here would be a surprise. As I said above, Liverpool are the clear tournament favourites and have been for a while. The only thing to say about this Liverpool side is that they will give you chances; they played out a crazy 2-2 draw with Manchester United at the weekend – including a couple of mistakes at the back from Liverpool. From the three sides in the Premier League title race, they are definitely the most open at the back. They have been sensational going forward though; their average xG created of 2.19 is the joint-best attacking figure with Manchester City in the Premier League. To have an average xG created over 2.0 is impressive, to do it in a league as good as the Premier League is immense. Liverpool are Champions League level really but obviously had a huge amount of issues at the back last season which brings them here. Compare that to Atalanta who are fighting for a Europa League spot again this season in Serie A.
They lost again at the weekend however, meaning they are now in sixth place five points off Roma sitting in fifth. Their under-lining numbers are very good, but obviously they are not at Liverpool’s level. Their average xG created is 1.59 and they concede an average of 1.28. They haven’t been playing well away from home though; they are actually conceding more chances than they are creating. Their average xG conceded away from home is 1.43 and while that’s not the worst figure, it is poor and they come up against one of the best attacking sides in Europe here. You can totally understand why Liverpool are so short in the betting, and they can cover the handicap on their way to winning. Klopp’s men are trading 1.93 -1.5 goals and that looks a very nice position. Atalanta come into this game on a poor domestic run too; granted they have had a tough fixture list because they’ve met AC Milan, Inter Milan and Juventus, but they’ve only won once in six Serie A games. Liverpool can go a long way to putting the tie to bed here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Atalanta at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivAta
