THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews ATALANTA v LIVERPOOL and WEST HAM v BAYER LEVERKUSEN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V LIVERPOOL
8pm We finish the Europa League Quarter-Finals on Thursday night, and the Premier League sides have a lot of work to do on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We saw one of the shocks of the season in the first leg between Liverpool and Atalanta – Liverpool started the game 1.38 but Atalanta blew them away with a 3-0 win and now they have home advantage in the second leg too. Liverpool have an absolute mountain to climb, but they have been one of the best attacking sides in Europe this season. Even allowing for a 3-0 loss at home to Atalanta, you could make an argument that it wasn’t the biggest blow of the week for Liverpool as they lost 1-0 an Anfield to Crystal Palace on Sunday! They started that game 1.2, and that was a huge blow to their title hopes which took a knock the weekend prior with a 2-2 draw against Manchester United too. Liverpool probably couldn’t come into this game in a worse position really; their season is in tatters in a matter of a week but here we are. Three goals is a huge ask, but Liverpool do have an average xG created of 2.21 this season which is exceptionally impressive. They are one of only a handful of sides in the world who could actually turn this around even though the odds are slim.
Liverpool come into the 90 minutes market as the odds on favourites; they are trading 1.7 with Atalanta 4.8 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. Liverpool had 70% possession in the first leg and created an xG of 1.86 – it was just one of those freak nights of football. The reality is though you have to put the ball into the back of the net when you get the chance, and Liverpool didn’t. We all know what the tactics will be from Atalanta here – Italian sides are known for being cagey with a one goal lead never mind a three goal lead! Liverpool might even see more of the ball in this game as Atalanta put XI men behind the ball. I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.45 when I clicked into the market – I know Liverpool are going to have to make this game exceptionally open but Atalanta will be trying to do the exact opposite. Both Teams To Score looks a little short at 1.52 here as well. I couldn’t put anyone off the Liverpool bet at 1.7 but Under 3.5 goals looks a cracking bet at 1.83 or bigger. Atalanta have an average xG conceded of only 1.13 at home in Serie A this season, they are going to defend for their lives and they can get the job done – they might not get a result in the 90 minutes market, but their only goal will be getting through.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaLiv
WEST HAM V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
8pm Next we have another Premier League side in need of a massive turnaround as West Ham host Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 down from the first leg. Some of the stats from that game were remarkable, and West Ham can count themselves lucky to only be two goals down. It took Bayer Leverkusen until the 83rd minute to find a goal, but they had 73% possession, 26 shots and finished the game with an xG of 3.49. West Ham fans might say that they were close to getting a 0-0, but it just as easily could have finished 6-0! The only hope here for West Ham is that Beyer Leverkusen partied too hard at the weekend after winning the Bundesliga title! Leverkusen have been absolutely exceptional this season; they have been 16 points clear of Bayern Munich and confirmed the title at the weekend. They haven’t lost a Bundesliga game all season, and they have been incredibly strong at the back along with having an average xG created of 2.06 this season. While West Ham sit in eighth in the Premier League, as I highlighted heading into the first leg they have some major red flags when you look into their under-lining numbers. I know Leverkusen don’t need to win here, but I was surprised to see the odds when I clicked into the market.
Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites at 1.99 with West Ham 3.85 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. I have to say that 1.99 looks a wonderful bet on Leverkusen, I know they are in a position here where they just have to get through the 90 minutes without any drama and tick their boxes but we know West Ham will give them chances. As I said above, Leverkusen have been exceptional going forward this season and West Ham have an average xG conceded of 1.78 in the Premier League this season. That’s the joint-second worst defensive figure in the Premier League; only Sheffield United have been worse at the back. West Ham have been over-performing in front of goal; their average xG created is only 1.18 but their actual goals scored average is 1.58 and that’s keeping them in the top half of the table. As we saw in the first leg though, there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides and the 1.99 looks too big to ignore. It’s a five out of five bet for me.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayer Leverkusen to beat West Ham at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesBay
