EUROPA LEAGUE THURSDAY: The Ultra previews BOLOGNA v ASTON VILLA and PORTO v NOTTINGHAM FOREST both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOLOGNA V ASTON VILLA
8pm The Europa League Quarter-Finals take centre stage on Thursday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We had one Quarter-Final kick off on Wednesday night, and then the following three on Thursday with the two Premier League clubs in action! We kick off the evening in Italy as Bologna host Aston Villa – a fascinating tie given these two sides have already met this season. It was actually Villa who won the opening league phase meeting between these clubs, with John McGinn’s 13th-minute finish earning a narrow 1-0 win at Villa Park back in September. Since that defeat, Bologna have gone on a remarkable run of 11 European games unbeaten – a new club record. Bologna have struggled a little in Serie A this season – they current sit outside the European spots after being so solid for years. Villa come into the tie in mixed domestic form, obviously much has been made about them over-performing this season. Villa fans have been chanting that Unai Emery is the “xG killer” because they’ve had so many wins with low xG figures. With only three wins from their last eleven Premier League games, maybe their results are starting to fall in line with their performance levels. Their European campaign has been genuinely impressive though – and of course Unai Emery is the most decorated manager in this competition’s history with four Europa League titles!
It’s no surprise that we have an open betting heat here; Aston Villa come into the game as the favourites at 2.5 with Bologna 3.25 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. Although Villa are in a very strong position in the top four race in the Premier League, you’d be forgiven for calling their under-lining numbers lacklustre. Villa have an average xG created of just 1.48 – that’s the ninth best attacking figure and hardly the figure of a genuine top four contender. Their average xG conceded of 1.44 is equally mid-table; generally when you are creating what you’re conceding, it puts you in mid-table in all of the top leagues. Bologna have a similar profile in attacking; an average xG created of 1.43 and the eighth best in Serie A. They are better at the back though with an average xG conceded of 1.17. The market has Villa as favourites here, and you can understand why when you factor in the Premier League pedigree and Emery’s European know-how, but I do feel the 2.5 is a little short. I’d have the betting even more open! This has all the signs of a classic cagey first leg, and from a value point of view I’m happy to lay Villa at 2.5. I expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Bologna at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELBoAs
PORTO V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
8pm We finish Thursday night with what could be the tie of the round as Porto host Nottingham Forest. With all the relegation battle drama in the Premier League this season, the Europa League has been a welcome distraction. They have their hands full with Porto here, and Vitor Pereira is, of course, a former Porto manager and knows this ground intimately, which adds another fascinating subplot. These sides have already met this season – Forest actually won that encounter 2-0 at the City Ground in the league phase. That was when Sean Dyche took over; at the time it looked like he might be here until the end of the season given he was the third manager, but now we are onto the fourth! Porto come into this tie as the form side in Portugal and have been exceptional in the Europa League too. It’s no surprise that they come into the game as the favourites with home advantage – Porto are 2.18 with Nottingham Forest 3.8 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. Porto’s only loss in the Europa League this season was the 2-0 loss to Nottingham Forest – that was a very tight when you look at the xG figures – you could say a draw would have been a fair result.
Forest have been very difficult to get a read on this season. Their performance levels haven’t been that bad; obviously they massively over-performed last season to get European football and that has risen the expectations of the owner. That’s caused carnage this season with decisions and managers. However, the reality is – somewhat ironically – is that Forest are creating more this season than last! The 3-0 win away at Fenerbahce was very impressive; and I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.18 on Porto here to be honest. The xG figures tell you Forest are better than their Premier League position, and in Europe they have repeatedly shown that. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here. Porto at home are formidable, but there is a big gulf in class between the domestic leagues obviously. While the Aston Villa Quarter-Final has all the hallmarks of a cagey affair, I actually feel this will be an entertaining game. Forest have been quite sloppy at the back this season, and I don’t see Porto sitting back with home advantage. Over 2.5 goals is trading 2.32 and that looks a shade big – I’m happy with a small position on goals.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELPoNo
