EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Thursday’s Europa League semi-finals between JUVENTUS v SEVILLA and ROMA v BAYER LEVERKUSEN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS v SEVILLA
8pm It’s a massive Thursday night on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week as we start the Europa League Semi-Finals. Unfortunately there’s no Premier League side left after Manchester United were dumped out by Sevilla, and that’s where we start the evening as they travel to take on Juventus. It’s been a desperately disappointing season domestically for Sevilla as they come into this game sitting in 11th – they sat in the relegation zone for a large part of the season too, and their last chance of getting back into Europe next season is now winning the Europa League. The major positive for Sevilla is they have been playing their best football of the season recently – they have turned things around, and shot up the table. Whether or not that is good enough to trouble a side like Juventus is another matter however. Sevilla have only lost once in their last seven La Liga games, and in between was the two legs against Manchester United in this competition. They are finally creating more chances, but they still have massive issues at the back. They clearly have more confidence given recent results, but for example they still conceded an xG of 2.61 while beating Villarreal 2-1. They face a Juventus side who have been fantastic at home this season too.
Juventus come into the first leg as the odds on favourites. They are currently trading 1.82 at the time of writing with Sevilla 5.4 and the draw is 3.7. Juventus will have watched Sevilla take apart Manchester United when they had home advantage in the second leg of the Quarter-Final, so they will know they have to win here. They can’t afford to switch off like United did in the second half of the first leg. Juventus have had their fair share of drama this season in Serie A, getting a 15 point deduction overturned recently to jump back into the top four, but at home all season they have been fantastic. Napoli ran away with the title this season, but they actually recorded the same amount of points at home as Juventus – that’s the home form we’re talking about here. Sevilla are conceding an average xG of 1.7 this season in La Liga – they have totally lost that “solidness” they had at the back for years, and it’s been downhill from there. You have to respect the fact that they have performed to a higher standard in Europe this season, but Juventus have played much better football and with their excellent home record it’s hard to see past the home win here. The 1.82 is worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Juventus to beat Sevilla at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvSev
ROMA v BAYER LEVERKUSEN
8pm Both Semi-Final first legs take place in Italy as Roma host Bayer Leverkusen. Juventus will be expected to progress from the first Semi-Final, while this one is much more open. Roma have suffered a poor run in Serie A recently – they have been dealt some hammer blow losses against Atalanta and Inter Milan in the top four race. The results at the weekend left them sitting down in seventh, five points off Inter Milan in fourth. After looking good for a top four finish a few weeks ago, they’ve gone four games without a win just at the wrong time. Within the same time frame Juventus had their 15 point deduction overturned too and jumped above them as well – they are unlucky to make the top four now. Jose Mourinho has been superb on the side line in this competition however; really giving it to the domestic press against Feyenoord and shouting at their manager too – just like Jose of old! Roma are a little off the top four quality wise in Italy, but Mourinho has built that siege mentality that he loves – he has the fans right behind him too. They face a Bayer Leverkusen side here who haven’t been at their best this season domestically, and they currently have a battle on to keep their place in Europe too. They are sitting in sixth place at the moment, just two points ahead of Wolfsburg and three ahead of Mainz – all three lost at the weekend! The gap is too big to worry about the top five.
Leverkusen have been pretty solid away from home in the Bundesliga, a bigger worry is their current form. Their last four xG figures domestically have been 0.66, 0.48, 0.95 and 0.92. Against a Roma side who concede an average xG of just 0.8 in Serie A this season they might find it difficult to score here. Their tactics will likely be to get a draw and head to the second leg, but Roma come into the first leg as favourites. The home win is trading 2.22 at the time of writing with Bayer Leverkusen 3.95 and the draw is 3.35. Roma have suffered with injuries recently, but the atmosphere here is always special for European ties like this. I know Roma have suffered setbacks in Serie A recently, but they haven’t been outplayed. The games have been very even on xG – for example the 2-0 loss to Inter Milan at the weekend finished with xG figures of 0.98 v 1.04 – the loss to Atalanta had figures of 1.08 v 0.91. It’s clear to me that Roma are playing the better football than Leverkusen at the moment who are struggling to create chances, but getting results. The Roma bet at 2.22 is tempting, but Under 2.5 goals is more appealing at 1.75 because neither side have been creating a lot recently. Leverkusen will be quite negative here, and it will be up to Roma to make the running – they might be able to grind out a 1-0 win but I don’t see many chances in this one.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomBay
