THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews the semi-final second leg games between ATALANTA v MARSEILLE and BAYER LEVERKUSEN v ROMA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V MARSEILLE
8pm Another massive night in Europe awaits on Thursday as we settle the Europa League Semi-Finals on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. Coming into the first legs with both fixtures kicking off at the same time, it would be fair to say most football fans would have been watching the Roma v Bayer Leverkusen game but with Leverkusen winning that tie 2-0, now the Atalanta v Marseille fixture becomes the highlight of the night. This tie is set up perfectly after a 1-1 in the first leg, and while Atalanta will now be strongly fancied to go through with home advantage – it’s still a lot more competitive looking than Roma trying to beat Bayer Leverkusen by two or more goals in Germany. Atalanta come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.8 with Marseille 5.0 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Heading into the first leg, you had to feel that was the massive leg for Marseille with home advantage. Their away performances in Ligue 1 this season just haven’t been as strong as their home performances – they have been leaking a lot more chances. At home their average xG conceded is only 1.07 but away this rises to 1.37. They sit in top three on the home form table, but away from home makes for exceptionally grim reading – they are second last in the away form Ligue 1 table. That is quite the difference, and now they head into their most important game of the season away from home.
Marseille have managed just two Ligue 1 wins away from home all season, and they actually have the same amount of points as Clermont away from home, so it’s the joint-worst record. Atalanta have been superb at home this season, and also weak away from home. We landed our bet on the draw at 3.45 in the first leg because of the Atalanta worries away from home – in Serie A they are marginally conceding more than they are creating away. However, at home their figures look so much better. They have an average xG created of 1.87 and an average conceded of 1.14. They won on Monday night to put together three wins in a row in Serie A to move into fifth and I just feel home advantage will be absolutely key here. That Marseille away form in Ligue 1 is a massive red flag for them coming into this game, and overall Atalanta have much more quality in their squad too. I really feel we’re getting a lot of value at 1.8 on the home win here, and it’s a five from five bet from me to start the evening.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Atalanta to beat Marseille at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaOly
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V ROMA
8pm Next we have Bayer Leverkusen hosting Roma, and while this is a top quality clash, most football fans already have Leverkusen in the Final given they won the first leg 2-0 in Rome. Leverkusen have been absolutely exceptional this season, not only did they school Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga but they have been faultless in Europe too. I said prior to the first leg that Roma needed to win that tie, even by more than one goal, to have any chance of getting through. Now heading to Germany two goals down, the writing is on the wall. I still expect Roma to arrive here and chase the game – they have played a much more open game since sacking Jose Mourinho and they have created a lot of chances too. That could make for an entertaining game and while it could get interesting if Roma score early, it is very hard to see past Leverkusen here. As you would expect with home advantage, Bayer Leverkusen come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.55 with Roma 6.6 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. The market pretty much has Leverkusen into the Final already; they are 1.04 in the To Qualify market!
From a Leverkusen point of view, they will want this game to be as boring as possible, with as little drama as possible. It will be interesting to see what kind of tactics they go with; they had a similar situation against West Ham in the Quarter-Finals except they were away from home in the second leg. They played out a draw, scoring late too in fairness, and just got the job done. They have an incredibly long unbeaten run to protect here, and I could see them sitting back a little more than usual. I do feel that Roma will open up though, and with how good Leverkusen have been counter-attacking this season that will give the home side a lot of chances. I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.55, however it is hard to see past them winning – I just can’t make the case that they should be massively shorter than their current price. Leverkusen have an average xG conceded of only 0.82 at home this season in the Bundesliga which is remarkably impressive. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but I feel Under 2.5 goals offers some value at 2.25. I accept Roma will chase this one from the start, but I feel Leverkusen will just want to play the 90 minutes in a very cagey fashion and get through. I’d have Unders a little shorter in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.25 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LevRom
