LA LIGA THURSDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra previews ALAVES v REAL SOCIEDAD and REAL MADRID v VALENCIA on Thursday with recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
ALAVES V REAL SOCIEDAD
6.30pm What a way to start the Thursday evening action as Alaves host Real Sociedad in the Basque Derby! Sociedad ran out 3-0 winners in the first meeting this season and Alaves will surely want revenge here. Clearly, we lose an element of fixtures like this with no crowd and that can only favour the away side behind closed doors. Alaves have only conceded 11 goals in 14 home games this season though, and even allowing for the xG being 15, that is still impressive and this will be a tough evening for Sociedad.
Sociedad look reasonably priced at 2.0. They haven’t set the world on fire away from home this season, only scoring 18 times and winning six games from 14 fixtures. The behind closed doors is a positive factor for them, but the 2.0 still doesn’t interest me. I think the match odds are bang on. I like under 2.5 goals here at 1.75. Neither team have good goal stats and Sociedad are a little flattered by their league position. Alaves are clearly a well organised side and I expect a low scoring game here. Sociedad to win 1-0 perhaps, but I’m happy with under 2.5 goals at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAlaRsc
REAL MADRID V VALENCIA
9pm Real Madrid returned with a 3-1 win over Eibar here at the weekend, but the xG told a different story. They didn’t have an xG over 1 by the end of the 90 minutes, and were very flattered to score three. Valencia could only draw with Levante though and didn’t create much either. They are grossly flattered by their La Liga position looking at their xG and it’s clear that scoring goals in a big problem. They’ve only managed 15 away goals in 13 games, in line with xG, but they have conceded 27 which is only 1 off the xG. Madrid should win easily here.
I’m surprised to see a home win as big as 1.42, and was expecting a price of sub 1.3. Real have only conceding 10 times at home this season and although the xG was nearly 14 – it’s hard to see Valencia causing them too much trouble looking at their stats. Valencia are conceding over 2 goals per away game and although the 1.42 on Madrid is very tempting I think they can win in style here at a value price. They are 2.24 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap and I love that price.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Valencia at 2.24 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRmaVal
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