THURSDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews Thursday’s games between VALENCIA v REAL VALLADOLID and ATHLETIC BILBAO v SEVILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VALENCIA V REAL VALLADOLID
6.30pm The midweek La Liga action continues on Thursday night on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two more interesting markets. We have two home favourites trading in the 1.8’s, and I’m sure there will be some big opinions on either side of the book. We start the evening with a massive relegation battle as Valencia host Real Valladolid. This is a must win game for Valencia as they sit in the relegation zone – that’s somewhere Real Valladolid have known recently but back-to-back wins have fired them up the table. They are five points away from Valencia, who also won at the weekend against Elche. I’m not sure we can read too much into that win because Elche have been nailed to the bottom of the table all season, but it was a step in the right direction. Both sides have been poor away from home this season, and that could be the difference here. Valencia have only managed nine points away from home this season, and Real Valladolid have only managed eleven so they aren’t much better. As you would expect with both sides towards the bottom of the table, their under-lining numbers haven’t been impressive.
Valencia haven’t played too bad compared to the sides around them, and they will say that they have been unlucky this season. They have created and conceded the same average xG, while Real Valladolid have conceded way more than they have created. They are conceding an average xG of 2.1 which is very high, especially compared to Valencia’s 1.5. It’s easy to understand why Valencia are favourites here – they have been playing better football and have home advantage. However, it’s hard to be very confident of either side performing here – they both just haven’t been good enough this season. You’d have to lean towards the Valencia win, but 1.8 doesn’t jump off the page as great value. With so much at stake here, I can’t see either side being too open. A draw would equally be a very good result for Real Valladolid given the cushion they have gained in their last two games. Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 makes a lot of appeal here, and I wouldn’t put anyone off a small bet on Under 1.5 goals at 3.6 or bigger either.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValVal
ATHLETIC BILBAO V SEVILLA
9pm We stay in La Liga to finish the evening as Athletic Bilbao host Sevilla. It seems in recent weeks Sevilla have finally got their act together – they have won three of their last four La Liga games, and knocked Manchester United out of the Europa League. They can’t achieve anything in La Liga this season which is a huge disappointment – it seemed like the top four in Spain was on lock. Sevilla’s best hope of European football next season is winning the Europa League so I would expect all their focus to be on that competition – that being said, the Semi-Final against Juventus isn’t until the 11th and 18th of May so they have a few La Liga games to get through. Athletic Bilbao are in the mix for a European spot next season though – they started the midweek round of fixtures sitting in seventh, and with a good chance Real Madrid will win the Copa del Rey there should be an extra spot for La Liga. They started the week only one point behind Villarreal and two behind Real Betis. They come into this game in good form too – they have won four of their last five, their only loss since the start of March was against Barcelona – no shame in that obviously. This should be a high quality game, I know Sevilla haven’t been at their best recently but they are in good form and we know how good they can be.
Although Sevilla won at the weekend, they were exceptionally lucky against Villarreal. They conceded an xG of 2.61 in their 2-1 win, probably a reflection of what confidence can do – earlier in the season they would have lost that game! It’s been quite the turnaround since they were 2-0 down at half-time at Old Trafford! Bilbao are trading as the odds on favourites, currently 1.89 at the time of writing with Sevilla 4.9 and the draw is 3.75. Sevilla are still conceding a lot of chances, their average xG conceded is 1.7 this season, and probably the only thing that’s improved in recent weeks is that they have been much better up front. Bilbao have been rock solid up front and at the back this season – they are creating an average that Sevilla are conceding, but the real difference is Bilbao only concede an average xG of 1.0. I feel that will be the difference here, and the 1.89 is worth taking on the home win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Sevilla at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthSev
