THURSDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews SEVILLA v ATHLETIC BILBAO and LAS PALMAS v BARCELONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SEVILLA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
6.15pm The midweek La Liga action continues on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with another two intriguing markets on Thursday. We start the evening with a very open market as Sevilla host Athletic Bilbao. These two are having two very different seasons so far; Sevilla sat just three points off the relegation zone at Christmas while Athletic Bilbao were just three points off the top four. It’s hard to see either side being involved in drama though; Sevilla are far too good to go down and it’s also hard to see Athletic Bilbao catching Barcelona and Atletico Madrid just above them. It’s not a surprise to see Athletic Bilbao come into this game as the favourites, but it has to be noted Sevilla have been playing good football this season without getting results. Athletic Bilbao are 2.5 with Sevilla 3.15 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. At a glance towards the table, Sevilla are having another shocking season – I really thought that winning the Europa League would get them out of jail last season. Not only did they drop out of the top four but they spent ages in the relegation zone too.
The Europa League win kept them in the Champions League, and to be honest I thought they would get back into the top four in La Liga this season. That simply hasn’t been the case though, and now that they finished bottom of their Group in the Champions League they are out of Europe – you’d expect players to want to leave now, and they won’t be bringing in any big names either. Their time within the top four could be gone; after the top four in Spain feeling a lock for years! The difficult thing for Sevilla this season is their average xG created is 1.71 which is the third highest figure in La Liga behind Barcelona and Real Madrid – they’ve been massively struggling to convert those chances though, and that’s been a major issue. Athletic Bilbao have an average xG created of 1.68 but the difference is that they have been taking those chances. That being said, the 2.5 does feel a little short given how many chances Sevilla are creating. I feel this is going to be a close game with chances at both ends, and the draw looks a nice option at 3.4.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevBil
LAS PALMAS V BARCELONA
8.30pm We finish he midweek fixtures with Las Palmas hosting Barcelona. This is a must win game for Barcelona as they start 2024 massively on the backfoot in the title race. You could even say that at seven points behind Real Madrid at Christmas they are nearly out of the title race already; especially considering how good Real Madrid have been playing too. Barcelona have dropped points in three of their last five games though, they are conceding sloppy goals and this is a great opportunity to notch up a confidence boosting win. Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites, they are trading 1.59 with Las Palmas 6.2 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Barcelona’s average xG created figure is 2.05 this season, which is the best attacking figure in La Liga. They face one of the worst attacking sides in the league here too; Las Palmas have an average xG created of just 0.92 this season. They are one of only three sides in La Liga with an average xG of under 1.0 this season. Their average xG conceded is basically mid-table form too, but you have to give them massive credit for grinding out so many results.
Las Palmas went into Christmas sitting just inside the top half of the table, they will be delighted with that position given they came up from the Segunda. Their only goal this season would have been to stay in La Liga. Obviously there are some red flags in their under-lining numbers, but they were always going to struggle adjusting to this high level. The 1.59 definitely feel good value on Barcelona, but that price reflects how solid at the back Las Palmas have been at home this season. Their average xG conceded at home is just 1.10 – that’s very impressive. They might be very limited going forward, but they have kept games as tight as possible. While I wouldn’t put anyone off Barcelona at 1.59 just because of the gulf in class between the sides, Under 2.5 goals looks very good value here at 2.2. I was very surprised to see it trading so high – Barcelona are going to have to grind out a win here and we know Las Palmas have been very limited going forward too. I don’t see many chances in this one.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LasBar
