THURSDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GIRONA v OSASUNA and LAS PALMAS v REAL MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GIRONA V OSASUNA
6pm The midweek La Liga action rolls onto Thursday night on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Girona and Real Madrid both in action. I’m sure the two favourites will be a popular double! We kick off the action with Girona hosting Osasuna, and all eyes are on Girona here after a poor start to the season. After everyone had played two games they sat in the relegation zone with just one point from their opening two games. They were rightly put in their place on Sunday night too with a 3-0 hammering against Atletico Madrid. As I mentioned in my preview of that game; they massively over-performed last season and it was always going to be interesting to see would their results fall more in-line with their performance levels this season. Last season they finished with an average xG created of 1.5 but their actual goals scored average was 2.24 – along with over-performing at the back too, that made them the most over-performing side in La Liga last season. In my opinion, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them drop out of the Champions League spots this season. They have the added fixture stress of European football at the elite level too. Osasuna have had a very positive start to their season with a win and a draw from their two games.
Osasuna have turned into your classic reliable mid-table La Liga side. Too good to be in a relegation battle, too average to compete for Europe. It will be interesting to see how Girona handle them here in their first home game of the season – they were much better at home compared to away last season. For example, they only conceded an average xG of 1.22 at home last season whereas away from home that figure rose to 1.62 which is a high figure; they created less chances away from home too. Girona come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.78 with Osasuna 5.1 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. I fully accept the fact that Girona are a much better and more confident side at home, but the 1.78 feels too short here – from a value point of view I’m happy with the home lay – I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest. Osasuna are a solid side, they conceded more than they created away from home last season too so I’m going to keep stakes small here but the 1.78 feels ten ticks too short.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Girona to beat Osasuna at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirOsu
LAS PALMAS V REAL MADRID
8.30pm We finish Thursday night with the Champions in action as Real Madrid travel to take on Las Palmas. After opening their season with a disappointing draw against Mallorca and then got a comfortable 3-0 win at home to Real Valladolid. This is another game that they will be fully expected to win on paper, but you could have easily said the same about the game away to Mallorca in fairness! Real Madrid come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.4 with Las Palmas 8.6 and the draw is 5.8 at the time of writing. Las Palmas did well to avoid a major relegation battle last season after coming up from the Segunda, however you’d have to be worried about them this season. There were some major red flags in their under-lining numbers last season. They finished the season with the worst attacking figure with an average xG created of only 1.16, and they struggled to even take those limited chances too – they scored less than a goal a game. They mainly focused on being solid at the back, and in fairness that strategy did pay off for them as it kept them up.
It doesn’t take long for the top sides to work you out at the back however, and they simply have to get better going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are heavily involved in the relegation battle this season. I was actually surprised to see Real Madrid trading as high as 1.4 when I clicked into the market – I felt we’d see them closer to the low 1.3’s to be honest. I know they dropped points away to Mallorca, and the market is probably worried about that. Las Palmas looked very limited at times last season though, and you can’t really fault Real Madrid looking at their figures – they were clearly the best side in La Liga last season. Mbappe coming in has only made them stronger, however it is still early days in that regard! I’m going to keep things simple here and back Real Madrid at 1.4 – that’s where the value is in my opinion and they are worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Real Madrid to beat Las Palmas at 1.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LasRma
