LA LIGA: The Ultra previews Thursday’s La Liga openers between ATHLETIC BILBAO v GETAFE and REAL BETIS v GIRONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATHLETIC BILBAO V GETAFE
6pm European football returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as we kick off the La Liga season on Thursday! La Liga have nicely staggered their fixture list for the opening weekend, and we kick off the action with two fascinating markets as Athletic Bilbao host Getafe and Real Betis meet Girona later. We start with Athletic Bilbao hosting Getafe, and all eyes will be on the home side here to see if they can match their level last season. They finished a very strong fifth to claim Europa League football this season and also bagged the Copa del Rey too. It has to go down as one of Athletic Bilbao’s best ever seasons, and their fans deserved European football this season after finishing eighth (one spot outside of Europe) for two seasons in a row! Getafe finished in mid-table last season, and that was definitely an improvement on being heavily involved in the relegation battle in 2022/23. They could have definitely finished higher too, but they lost their last five games – only one win from their last nine games actually – they were a good example of a side on the beach early. It will be interesting to see can they back up that season now and stay away from the relegation battle again.
It’s no surprise to see Athletic Bilbao as the favourites here with home advantage – they were absolutely superb at home last season. The home side are trading 1.48 with Getafe 9.3 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Getafe were quite average away from home last season, and there was a big gulf between their home and away performances. They conceded a lot of chances away from home and they actually finished in the bottom five on the away form table. Compare that to the Bilbao home form – they only lost once here all season – the only side to have a better home record than that was Real Madrid! They were rock solid at the back too with an average xG conceded at home of just 1.04 – that is a very impressive figure, especially considering their attacking figure here at 1.7 too. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably small to start the season so no Five Star NAPs incoming here as it’s the opening weekend, but Bilbao at 1.48 look cracking value in my opinion. Three points is still a confident bet!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Getafe at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthGet
REAL BETIS V GIRONA
8.30pm We finish Thursday night with a fascinating clash as Real Betis host Girona. You could write a book about the season these two had in 2023/24. When it looked like Sevilla were no longer a top four side, you would have said that Real Betis were the natural replacement – they had finished fifth/sixth and won the Copa del Rey for example. Their level has dramatic fallen though, and along came Girona who were the surprise package of last season. At one stage it looked like they might even trouble the race for the title, but when they met Real Madrid in early February that idea was put to bed with a crushing 4-0 win for Real! Girona were absolutely superb in front of goal all season, and they fully deserved to get Champions League football this season. It’s going to be a fascinating season to see can they actually hold that level and keep their place in the top four. There were definitely some red flags in their under-lining numbers last season; for example their average xG created was 1.5 compared to their actual goals scored average of 2.24. That’s a huge difference. They over-performed at the back too; their average xG conceded was 1.42 compared to their actual figure of just 1.21. That meant they were the highest over-performing side in La Liga last season.
Football has become very data driven these days, but the stats don’t lie as they say and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Girona results come more in-line with their performance levels. It will be interesting to see how they play against a very average Real Betis side here. Real Betis has an average xG created of 1.37 last season which is a mid-table figure and that’s where they finished. They got the last spot in Europe in seventh; they seem to be going backwards rather than forwards over the last two seasons. We have a very open betting heat here with Real Betis the favourites at 2.46 with Girona 3.15 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. Although I’m not a fan of Real Betis, the worst Girona performances last season came away from home. I know we have an open market, but I would have the sides a little bigger and the draw a little shorter. I can see a very close game here and the draw stands out as the value position.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetGrn
