ITALIAN SUPER CUP PREVIEW: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v AC MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V AC MILAN
8pm The Italian Super Cup kicks off on Thursday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange! For the sixth time, Saudi Arabia are hosting – we have the Semi-Finals on Thursday and Friday before the Final on the 22nd. Obviously we always have a big debate around domestic leagues/cups moving their fixtures abroad but this has become the norm in Italy now. We watched the fallout this year as La Liga wanted to move a Barcelona fixture but basically couldn’t follow through because of the outcry.
With the money on offer, it seems things like that will happen eventually and more often. The NFL has done it well, but it really does get football fans going when it’s suggested. Anyway, we kick off the Supercoppa with Napoli clashing with AC Milan and this should be a cracker. The sides have been battling at the top of Serie A this season but Inter Milan took over after AC Milan and Napoli both dropped points at the weekend. That left Inter on top with AC Milan one point back and Napoli two points. The sides met back in late September with AC Milan winning 2-1.
Perhaps with the heat involved, we have general seen goals in the Super Cup. AC Milan beat Inter Milan 3-2 in the Final last time, and in 2024 we saw two 3-0 wins in the Semi-Finals before Inter Milan grinded out a 1-0 win over Napoli. When Saudi Arabia hosted the Spanish Super Cup; we saw a crazy amount of goals too. I would expect an open and entertaining game here. As you would expect given the neutral venue, we have a very open betting heat. AC Milan are the favourites at 2.76 with Napoli 2.96 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing.
There’s only one point between the sides in Serie A and there’s very little between them on performance levels too. There’s only 0.02 between them on attacking xG figures – the bigger difference has been at the back with AC Milan conceding more chances. They have an average xG conceded of 1.28 compared to Napoli at 1.14. Both sides have actually conceded the same amount of goals in Serie A this season with 13 goals in 15 games – AC Milan have been riding their luck at the back a little this season. I have to say, I know we have an open market but I feel Napoli should be a little closer in price to AC Milan, if not even the favourites.
I was also very surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as big as 2.4 – I know they’ve both kept things tight at the back in Serie A this season but I would expect a more open game given the conditions. I couldn’t put anyone off the AC Milan lay from a value point of view as I would have Napoli favourites but I feel the best value option here is Over 2.5 goals at 2.4 which looks cracking value. That’s a confident bet for me!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ISNaAc
