THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews PORTO v ROMA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PORTO V ROMA
8pm We have the Europa League Knockout stage on Thursday night on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as we continue the fantastic week from Europe! We have some interesting markets – there’s actually no massive favourites from the eight fixtures – but there’s no double that Porto v Roma is the highlight tie of the round. These two sides could have faced a much easier tie but someone has to go. They could argue that they are bigger than some of the sides got that into the top eight, but here we are.
It’s fair to say that both sides have been a little lacklustre this season. Porto are off the pace in Portugal; eight points behind Sporting Lisbon and they’ve actually been on a poor run domestically too – they are without a win in their last five games. Roma have been through a lot this season – they sacked their manager early in the season, got Claudio Ranieri out of retirement to steady the ship – he’s announced his re-retirement at the end of the season so they’ll be on the hunt for another new manager. They over-performed under Jose Mourinho, and now they are dealing with the fallout of expectations rising in my opinion.
Roma are under immense pressure at the moment because it looks like they are going to miss out on a European spot in Serie A for next season. They sit in mid-table, eight points off Fiorentina who are in sixth place. This will be a big challenge for Roma away from home; Porto have created much more at home this season, and they’ve been very solid at the back. Domestically, their average xG created is just over 2.0 at home and they’ve conceded an average xG of just 0.77. Obviously there’s a big gulf in class between the domestic leagues, but Roma’s average xG created away from home in Serie A is only 1.31 and they are conceding more than they are creating away from home.
We have a reasonably open betting heat, Porto come into the game as favourites with home advantage at 2.5 with Roma 3.15 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. It’s not a surprise to see such an open betting heat here, it’s actually hard to have a lot of faith in either side – I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here. I feel we’ll have a very cagey game here; Roma will be happy with a draw and Porto have had Under 2.5 goals land in three of their four home Europa League games this season. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.94 and that looks a very nice position in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELPoRo
