THURSDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL GENOA v ROMA and OSASUNA v ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GENOA V ROMA
7.45pm The excellent midweek action from Serie A and La Liga continues on Thursday night with Roma and Atletico Madrid both in action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have two fascinating markets here, and I’m sure there will be some big opinions on the prices. Roma and Atletico Madrid are both big favourites, but neither of them are trading odds on and both are away from home. We start the evening in Serie A with Roma away to Genoa. At the time of writing, Roma are trading 2.17 with Genoa 4.0 and the draw is 3.35. It’s been a slow start to the season for Roma; after the fans turned up to support/possibly protest at the training ground they went and won 7-0 against Empoli. You thought their season had started, but then they could only draw 1-1 with Torino at the weekend. Only five points from five games, and already falling well behind in the race for a European spot. As always with Mourinho, it is very interesting to see how he deals with setbacks – at the moment he has huge Roma support behind him, perhaps this situation is different to all the other times things have started falling apart.
On paper, this is a game Roma should win. Genoa have had a worse start than Roma with just four points from their five games, and their sole aim this season will be staying in Serie A after coming up from Serie B when finishing second there last season. I know Roma have had a lot of issues at the start of the season, but I was surprised to see them trading as high as 2.17 when I clicked into the market. After the weekend round of games, Genoa had the worst xG created average in Serie A. They have only created an average xG of 0.66 which is one of the smallest figures from the major leagues in Europe at this stage. They are conceding chances too, and while Roma haven’t got the results they are creating decent chances – their xG created was the fifth best and they have been rock solid at the back too with an average xG of 0.95. Only one of three clubs, others being Napoli and Inter Milan, to have an xG under 1.0 after five games. I feel we’re getting so much value at 2.17 here that Roma are worth a Max Bet!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Roma to beat Genoa at 2.17 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GenRom
OSASUNA V ATLETICO MADRID
8.30pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish Thursday night as Osasuna host Atletico Madrid. This is another fascinating market with very similar odds to the Serie A fixture above. Atletico Madrid are trading only one tick bigger than Roma at 2.18 with Osasuna 3.8 and the draw is 3.45. Atletico Madrid had a huge 3-1 win over Real Madrid at the weekend, and they definitely needed that having dropped plenty of points already this season. I said in my preview of that game that they needed to win to be considered in the title race, and they delivered. It’s still worrying that they conceded a bigger xG figure than they created though, and they did concede quite a high one at 1.92 as well. More worrying than dropping points in my opinion is the performance level from Atletico this season. They are only marginally creating more chances than they are conceding – their average xG created is 1.39 while their average conceded is 1.37. Away from home, they are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating too – their average xG created away from home is 1.3 so you can understand why they have plenty of layers here.
Osasuna have had a pretty average start to the season. They are your classic mid-table La Liga side, but they did have their best season to get European football last season in seventh. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them drop down to around tenth again, and their under-lining numbers would suggest they’ll likely finish mid-table again! They are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating at the moment – there isn’t much in it but their average xG created is 1.29 and their average conceded is 1.35. They have created more chances at home, but I still feel the 2.18 is too big on Atletico Madrid. I fully accept the fact that they have been pretty poor at times this season, especially away from home, but they have an excellent record against Osasuna – 17 wins from 22 meetings – and they can get the job done here. They’ve come out on top in the last ten meetings, and they can make it eleven here!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Atletico Madrid to beat Osasuna at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OssAtl
