NATIONS LEAGUE SEMI-FINALS: The Ultra previews SPAIN v ITALY on Thursday with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SPAIN V ITALY
7.45pm We have a cracking Thursday night on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Spain take on Italy in the second Semi-Final of the Nations League. This is definitely the glamour tie of the Semi-Final stage, and whoever goes through will go off as favourite for the Final on Sunday. Both sides come into this week in need of something though – Italy didn’t make it to the World Cup, and Spain had a very disappointing one, even embarrassing one you might say. Winning the Nations League wouldn’t cover over the World Cup performance for Spain, but it would be a step in the right direction!
Spain come into this game as the favourites. They are trading 2.36 at the time of writing with Italy 3.6 and the draw is 3.2. As I highlighted in Wednesday’s Netherlands v Croatia preview, it’s been a long time since we’ve had the Nations League Group stage. We’ve had a World Cup and started Euro 2024 qualifying since! Both sides have started their Euro 2024 qualifying with one win and one loss. Span lost 2-0 away to Scotland which was a very disappointing result, but they have a reasonably weak Group they should still top. While Italy lost 2-1 to England with home advantage, and you’d expect them to finish that Group in second behind England.
Both sides have been through transitional periods recently, especially Spain. After missing the World Cup, it’s almost forgotten that Italy won Euro 2020! That seems so long ago now, even with the tournament pushed back a year because of Covid19. Italy had the tougher Group in the Nations League with Germany and England in it, while Spain had Portugal. Both sides recorded 11 points but you wouldn’t expect them to blow away their opposition either – those Groups were always going to be hard fought.
When I look at these two sides I just feel it’s hard to have confidence in either of them. Italy missing out on the World Cup was a huge let down, and then they haven’t played to an exceptional level in ages – even when winning Euro 2020 you could argue. Spain had a very poor World Cup. After starting with a 7-0 win over Costa Rica and taking all the headlines, they only managed xG figures of 0.79 v Germany, 1.20 v Japan and 1.55 v Morocco. Those figures just aren’t good enough, and they didn’t deserve to top their Group and they couldn’t say they were unlucky to crash out on penalties against Morocco either.
I’m expecting a very cagey and close game here. I couldn’t put anyone off the draw at 3.2, but I feel the value play is the Spain lay at 2.36. That just feels far too short when there isn’t much between the sides at all. I’m expecting a low scoring game too, and Under 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal at 1.64. I couldn’t put anyone off that bet, but I feel there is marginally more value in the Spanish lay at 2.36 so that will be my best bet.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Spain to beat Italy at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpaIta
